China Economic Outlook Rebound levelling off After treading water in Q1, activity should pick up again this quarter following the relaxation of domestic travel restrictions. But growth will be more modest than most expect over the next couple of... 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA still likely to extend bond purchases further The Reserve Bank of Australia will revise down its near-term forecasts for the unemployment rate at its meeting on 4th May, but it will probably still signal that inflation will fall short of its 2-3%... 28th April 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2021) The weakness in underlying inflation in Q1 is consistent with our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce a third $100bn round of asset purchases before long. And it suggests that the... 28th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf leads the way in unbalanced recovery A strong vaccine rollout in the Gulf, particularly in the UAE and Bahrain, and Morocco should mean that containment measures are eased soon, paving the way for sustained economic recoveries. But the... 27th April 2021 · 25 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr. 2021) The jump in Brazil’s inflation to 6.2% y/y in mid-April is likely to keep the central bank on course to hike the Selic rate by 75bp, to 3.50%, at its meeting next week. 27th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Kuroda’s term to end with inflation still below target The Bank of Japan kept policy settings unchanged today as widely anticipated. And by predicting inflation well below its 2% target all the way to FY2023, the Bank signalled that Governor Kuroda won’t... 27th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Mar. 2021) Inflation continued to rebound in March mainly due to a further pickup in energy inflation. We think headline inflation will rise further and break past the lofty heights of +1% y/y later in the year. 23rd April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The jump in Mexican inflation to 6.1% y/y in the first half of April was primarily linked to unfavourable base effects from low oil prices a year ago. We doubt that this will concern the central bank... 22nd April 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate crept up to 3.2% y/y in March but this was almost entirely due to energy price effects that will become more pronounced this quarter. In contrast, underlying... 21st April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus restrictions start to bite Our in-house mobility tracker suggests that the surge in virus infections in India is now weighing on activity. This is likely to become more pronounced as the outbreak has become more widespread... 21st April 2021 · 10 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.) The latest jump in Nigerian inflation, to 18.2% y/y in March, will probably reinforce the views of the hawkish minority on the central bank’s MPC. Our base case is that the majority of MPC members... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Saudi inflation fell to 4.9% y/y in March and, while the headline rate is likely to rise in Q2, we expect it to fall sharply to 1.5-2.0% from July as the effects of last year’s VAT hike fade. 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response India Wholesale Prices (Mar. 2021) The faster-than-anticipated acceleration in headline wholesale price inflation in March was driven by a surge in fuel inflation, but we think it should fall back soon enough. And with the recent jump... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Three reasons we think the euro will weaken further this year Although the euro has recovered some ground against the US dollar this month, we still expect it to weaken further against the greenback later this year. 12th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Mar. 2021) The jump in Brazilian inflation to 6.1% in March was largely a result of rising energy inflation, which will be transitory. Even so, the central bank is clearly worried by above-target inflation and... 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly QE or not QE isn’t really the question The RBI's new bond purchase programme announced this week has led to comparisons with quantitative easing (QE), but there appears to be some subtle differences. In truth however, it matters little... 9th April 2021 · 6 mins read
