Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 2.9% y/y, in February almost certainly rules out a hike in interest rates at Thursday’s MPC meeting. We think that the repo rate will remain... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus Pandemic will lead to more inflation…eventually The economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis may not push CPI inflation above 2.0% for a prolonged period until 2023, although there is a risk that it happens sooner. And further ahead, the... 22nd March 2021 · 24 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation is about to jump, but will the rise persist? Inflation will rise sharply in every major economy in the months ahead, driven by a rebound in energy inflation, tax changes, and supply shortages. On average, CPI inflation in the advanced economies... 19th March 2021 · 15 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Feb. 2021) Headline inflation recovered further in February due mainly to a pickup in energy inflation and should continue to rebound over the coming months as energy becomes a significant tailwind. 19th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank unlikely to flinch as inflation moves above target We expect inflation to hit 3.5% in April and then to sit at the upper end of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range for most of the rest of the year. Given the likelihood that inflation will drop... 18th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The modest rise in inflation to 1.1% in February is set to be followed by much sharper increases to more than 2% this month and to more than 3% in April, as energy inflation surges. 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) The latest jump in Nigerian inflation, to 17.3% y/y in February is unlikely to prompt the central bank to tighten monetary policy as concerns about a weak recovery mount. 16th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does Turkey need to do to bring inflation down? Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) looks set to hike interest rates further this week, and the experience from other EMs suggests that it will need to keep real interest rates elevated for several years to... 15th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Saudi inflation dropped to an eight-month low of 5.2% y/y in February and while, it is likely to rise again over the next few months, we expect it to fall sharply to 1.5-2.0% from July as the effects... 15th March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) The acceleration in headline wholesale price inflation in February to a two-year high will do little to dampen growing market expectations of rate hikes in the very near future. However, we still... 15th March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Markets are jumping the gun on RBI rate hikes Financial markets appear increasingly convinced that the RBI is on the cusp of monetary tightening, perhaps due to fears of a re-run of the Taper Tantrum in 2013. But India isn’t as vulnerable to a... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Feb. 2021) The jump in Brazilian inflation to a stronger-than-expected 5.2% last month makes it almost certain that Copom will begin a tightening cycle next week. While we’ve pencilled in a 50bp rate hike (to 2... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation now too strong for the CBR to ignore A series of strong inflation readings in Russia have put the central bank’s ability to meet its inflation target over the next year under threat and brought forward the prospect of monetary tightening... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) The slight pick-up in Egyptian inflation to 4.5% y/y in February still leaves the headline rate below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range but, if we’re right in expecting... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) A drop in food inflation caused by shifts in the timing of the Lunar New Year meant that headline consumer price inflation remained in negative territory last month. That said, broader price pressures... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further rise in Mexico’s headline inflation, to 3.8% y/y in February, was largely driven by higher fuel prices. This trend has further to run in the coming months which, alongside the recent... 9th March 2021 · 2 mins read
