China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Consumer price deflation reversed last month due to a jump in fuel prices and an uptick in core inflation. But evidence of intensifying price pressures was clearest in producer price inflation, which... 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The jump in Mexico’s headline inflation, to 4.7% y/y in March, was driven once again by higher fuel inflation. We think this trend has a bit further to run, but the central bank is likely to look... 8th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate held steady at 4.5% y/y in March, leaving it below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range. There is a growing chance that, with the economy still... 8th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long while yet The MPC voted to keep the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today amid the surge in COVID-19 cases, and committed to keeping policy “accommodative to support and nurture the recovery”. Given this... 7th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) The further rise in Russia’s headline inflation rate last month, to 5.8% y/y, is likely to prompt the central bank to follow up March’s interest rate hike with further tightening. We have pencilled in... 6th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile rate hikes on the horizon, Brazilian payrolls Chile’s central bank was notably less dovish at its meeting this week, supporting our view that the central bank will begin a tightening cycle later this year, most likely in Q4. Elsewhere, while... 1st April 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Swiss inflation looks set to continue its upward trend over the coming months, but with temporary factors likely to fade in H2, and underlying price pressures likely to remain much weaker, this won’t... 1st April 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation target maintained, external risks diminished Confirmation that the RBI’s current target of 4% headline inflation will be maintained for another five years is the best outcome from an economic perspective, as tinkering with it could have un... 1st April 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Real yields and gold The latest pull-back in the price of gold to below $1,700/oz. has illustrated its greater sensitivity to US long- than short-dated real yields. We expect the price to fall further as the US real yield... 30th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (Mar.) The increase in German HICP inflation to 2.0% in March is not the end of the upward trend. We expect rising energy prices and some further unwinding of the factors which suppressed it last year to... 30th March 2021 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch RBI unlikely to follow its EM peers EM monetary policy has turned decidedly more hawkish in recent weeks. But, with a renewed surge COVID-19 infections a downside risk to India’s recovery, we don’t think the Reserve Bank will be joining... 29th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar. 2021) The surge in Brazilian inflation to 5.5% y/y in the middle of March – its highest rate in over four years – has further to run and the headline rate looks set to reach 7.5% y/y in Q2. That will result... 25th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update CPI inflation will rise back above PCE inflation The unusual rise in the Fed’s preferred PCE measure of inflation above CPI inflation in January partly reflects the impact of the differing methodology which, as spending patterns return to pre... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) The continued rise in Mexican inflation to 4.1% y/y over the first half of March, above the central bank’s 2-4% target range, will almost certainly put an end to Banxico’s easing cycle. We think that... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update What next for inflation? A rise in headline consumer price inflation over the coming months will do little to temper growing market expectations of imminent rate hikes. But it will largely be driven by fuel price inflation... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Will demographic changes boost inflationary pressures? The rapid growth of the global labour supply in the past few decades looks set to give way to a period of much weaker growth. Some argue that this will reverse the decline in inflation seen in recent... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
