Europe Economics Update Energy prices to push inflation up furthest in periphery The impact of the war in Ukraine on energy prices will have a bigger effect on inflation in Italy and Spain this year than in Germany and France. 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update US economy insulated from Ukraine war The war in Ukraine will prevent US inflation from falling as much as it otherwise would have in the coming months, but it will have little impact on the real economy, so we doubt it will stop the Fed. 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (February) The increase in inflation in Germany and much bigger jumps elsewhere mean that euro-zone inflation for February will come in well above expectations. However, the ECB has bigger concerns at present... 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to start hiking in June The RBA still sounded dovish when it kept interest rates unchanged today. However, we suspect that another upside surprise in Q1 inflation will convince the Bank that tighter policy is needed even if... 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Feb.) The surveys suggest that the pace of economic growth edged up slightly in February. But it remains weak amid continued supply shortages, higher imported inflation, and persistent disruption to... 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Energy markets present upside risk to the Gulf The Gulf economies are key beneficiaries from the rise in energy prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. On an annualised basis, oil at $100pb would increase hydrocarbon export revenues by 7-10%... 28th February 2022 · 15 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Mixed market reaction in Africa to Russia-Ukraine war Elevated commodity prices on the back of the Russia-Ukraine crisis will almost certainly add to inflationary pressures across Sub-Saharan Africa. High prices for energy, metals and agricultural... 28th February 2022 · 12 mins read
China Chart Pack Renminbi strength a headache for the PBOC As well as a geopolitical quagmire for China’s leadership, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become a headache for the PBOC. It has been signalling its dissatisfaction with the strength of the renminbi... 28th February 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Update Russia-Ukraine: Some scenarios for the UK economy As it stands at the moment, we still think that the Russian/Ukraine conflict is more likely to boost inflation in the UK by more than it reduces GDP growth and that the Bank of England will continue... 28th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Chart Pack How will central banks respond to rising oil prices? The recent jump in oil prices poses a significant upside risk to our inflation and interest rate forecasts for this year. Central banks would normally “look through” a one-off jump in the price level... 28th February 2022 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine crisis & Latin America The main economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on Latin America will come via higher commodity prices, with oil and grains producers set to benefit. But it will also cause inflation to trend... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack War in Europe Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has caused turmoil in financial markets across the region. Western nations have imposed sanctions on Russia, including targeting some of its largest banks and... 25th February 2022 · 15 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Safe-haven franc not a dire concern for the SNB The divergence between gold prices and the Swiss franc/euro cross rate in the hours after the start of the invasion of Ukraine suggests to us that the SNB intervened to limit the sharp rise in the... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine crisis to affect inflation more than growth As a result of the Ukraine crisis, we have revised up our inflation forecasts even further above the consensus. But we think that the impact of higher inflation on consumption will be cushioned by the... 25th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Oil prices and inflation, zero-COVID holdouts The main channel through which Asia will be affected by the crisis in Ukraine is higher oil prices. We are sticking with our non-consensus view that most countries in Asia will leave interest rates on... 25th February 2022 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Ukraine crisis generates inflation and external risks The key channel through which the crisis in Ukraine will impact India's economy is higher oil prices. If sustained, higher prices would harm real incomes and dampen the economic recovery, which the... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
