A simple argument can be made that the US stock market would falter next month if the Fed didn’t cut rates, the logic being that Treasury yields would rise and reduce the present value of firms’ future earnings. But things might not play out that way. …
11th August 2025
The announcement that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday has increased the possibility of a scenario in which the Ukraine war ends on terms favourable to Russia. That could ultimately result in an easing of some sanctions, providing …
Housing market on steadier footing Beginning with the good news, local real estate board data show that sales in four of Canada’s “early releaser” cities rose by 9% m/m in July, including a bumper 13% rise in Toronto. That gain points to a 6% rise in …
8th August 2025
The dollar has continued to edge lower in the wake of last week’s payrolls shock and a weak ISM reading this week as US interest expectations adjust lower. Given the extent of that adjustment – money markets now discount ~125bp of rate cuts over the …
Exporting carries on The trade deficit narrowed to $60.2bn in June, from $71.5bn. This was the smallest deficit in almost two years, with a normalisation in pharmaceutical goods imports causing total imports to decline by 3.7% m/m. While total exports …
After an extraordinarily divisive Bank of England policy meeting, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores why it’s become so difficult to get a clear read on the UK economy. Part of the problem lies with the data – an issue now making headlines in …
After notching one of their biggest 1-day falls in recent years last Friday, Treasury yields have this week traded in a historically tight range despite no shortage of catalysts. If we’re right to expect a hot US CPI print next week, that apparent calm …
The Bank of England’s hawkish tone at its policy meeting on Thursday has inevitably led to questions about whether interest rates will be cut again this year and whether the Bank’s rate-cutting cycle will soon end. (See here .) In some ways, the Bank’s …
US migration policies hit remittances The more than 16% y/y drop in remittances to Mexico (in dollar terms) in June suggests that the Trump administration’s crackdown on undocumented migrants is starting to have an impact south of the border. The decline …
Zambia should fix the roof while sun is shining Zambia secured another disbursement from the IMF this week, though it’s unclear whether it will try to extend its programme. We see little room for hesitation; fiscal strains remain severe, and continued …
We are revising up our end-2025 forecast for the S&P 500, from 6,250 to 6,750. And we now project that the index will finish 2026 at 7,250, which is above our previous forecast of 7,000. After correctly predicting that the S&P 500 would soar in 2024 , we …
Labour market weakness justifies September rate cut The Labour Force Survey has once again made a mockery of the economist consensus, with the surprise 83,000 surge in employment in June followed by a 40,800 slump last month. We are now a bit more …
NBR unlikely to cut until (at least) mid-2026 The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, as expected, and its communications suggest a restart of the easing cycle remains some way off. We expect rates to remain on …
Consumer electronics could be hit too President Trump’s tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, threatened at 100% and 250% respectively, could have bigger implications for China than the modest scale of its chip and pharma exports to the US might …
EU protected from higher chip and pharma tariffs President Trump this week threatened a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports produced by firms that do not plan to invest in the US. We wrote about the global implications here . But in principle, the EU has …
Trump-Putin meeting in the spotlight Expectations that the touted Trump-Putin meeting could lead to a breakthrough in talks to halt fighting in Ukraine are likely to be fairly low. After all, little progress has been made towards ending the war so far. …
A week is a long time in the oil market Even with multiple twists and turns to contend with, this week was a bearish one for oil prices. As it stands, the price of Brent crude has fallen by just over 4% over the course of the week. OPEC+ hit the opening …
We still expect the dollar to recover some ground over the rest of 2025 as interest rate differentials shift back in favour of the US and some of the policy uncertainty discount evident in the dollar since the 2 nd April “Liberation Day” event continues …
Trump’s threats to pharma and chip exporters Malaysia and Taiwan are the two countries in Asia most exposed to Donald Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on semiconductor imports. By our estimates, exports of these products to the US amount to 2.2% of …
50% tariff may not be the end of the story for India President Trump this week followed through on his threat to punish India for its continued economic ties with Russia: India is set to face an additional 25% tariff on top of the 25% tariff that took …
Strong case for RBNZ to provide more stimulus The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been bemoaning the weak state of productivity growth for a while now, arguing that it is stifling the speed limit of the economy. Yet, the Bank has quietly been revising up …
Bonus payments coming back to earth The economic data released this week at the margin would support the case for keeping monetary policy unchanged for longer. For one thing, while the Bank of Japan’s consumption activity index rebounded in June, it was …
Miran a good pick for the Fed President Donald Trump’s decision to nominate Stephen Miran to replace Adriana Kugler as Fed Governor, albeit only on a temporary basis to begin with, is a welcome surprise. Miran is currently the Chair of Trump’s Council of …
7th August 2025
Banxico slows the pace of easing, but more rate cuts still likely Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) lowered its policy rate by a smaller 25bp, to 7.75%, as expected at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications suggest that cuts are likely to …
The surprisingly hawkish tone struck by the Bank of England today has increased the chances it will slow down the pace of rate cuts from one per quarter. But our view remains that Bank Rate will be cut further than investors anticipate, driving the …
German carmakers’ recent disappointing earnings reports are as much about their continued struggles in China as US tariffs. And though sales in Europe have been more encouraging recently, that is unlikely to last. Overall, the prospects for the German …
Investment in both computer hardware and software surged in the first half of this year, which could be a sign that the AI boom is now boosting economic growth. Most of that hardware is imported, however, and that capital investment has not translated …
Next week, we expect Norges Bank to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.25% but reiterate that it is likely to loosen policy later this year. We forecast two 25bp cuts by year-end. At its last meeting, Norges Bank cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, …
Saudi: cuts kick in, but more tightening needed The Saudi Ministry of Finance published its Quarterly Budget Performance Report for Q2 last Friday which showed that the government is on track to run a larger deficit than projected. While spending cuts …
Property valuations were unchanged in Q2, with both property and alternative asset yields steady over the quarter. We still think the 10-year gilt yield will see a gradual fall over the next couple of years. That will improve valuations and argues against …
Although the Bank of England cut interest rates today by 25 basis points (bps), from 4.25% to 4.00%, it showed some signs that it may cut rates slower and/or not as far as our forecast of a decline to 3.00% in 2026. We are sticking to our view that …
Further rate cuts unlikely this year The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 3.50%, and in contrast to most other analysts, we think that further monetary easing is unlikely this year. The decision to leave the policy …
Inflation drop seals the deal on a 25bp cut later today The drop in Mexican inflation to 3.5% y/y in July paves the way for Banxico to deliver the clearly-signalled 25bp cut, to 7.75%, at its meeting later today. The outturn was down from 4.3% in June and …
For an updated and more detailed version of this analysis, click here . Rates cut to 4.00%, but BoE appears in no rush to cut again soon Although the Bank of England cut interest rates today by 25 basis points (bps), from 4.25% to 4.00%, it showed some …
Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish this year as low confidence and slowing income growth …
The reciprocal tariffs that have taken effect overnight have resulted in a broad range of US tariffs on different countries. At one end sits China (effective tariff rate of 42%), and Brazil (35%), Switzerland (25%). At the other sits Mexico, Canada, and …
Swedish residential total returns have underperformed the European average over the past three years, but a bright rental outlook in particular means we think returns will slightly outperform Europe over the next five years. Residential investment has …
Revisions erase German industrial resilience The sharp drop in German industrial production in June and the big downward revision to the figures for May mean that, rather than holding up well in the face of tariffs as the data previously suggested, German …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. House prices recovering, but the rebound won’t meet consensus expectations The rise in Halifax house prices in July provides another indication that the housing market is …
Relatively high inflation will encourage Riksbank to keep rates on hold The increase in Sweden’s CPIF inflation rate to its highest level since the start of 2024 is likely to encourage the Riksbank’s officials to keep the policy rate on hold at their …
Lower interest rates to support growth in 2025 GDP growth in the Philippines picked up slightly in the second quarter of this year, and we continue to expect steady growth over the remainder of 2025 as low inflation and monetary easing support domestic …
US tariffs biting again Exports came under pressure again last month – the acceleration in headline y/y growth was simply due to base effects. With the temporary boost to demand from the US-China trade truce already fading and tariffs on shipments …
The high-beta Antipodean currencies had been the worst victims of global trade tensions but have fared better since early April, relative to their G10 peers, as global risk appetite steadily improved. Nevertheless, we think the best days for the Aussie …
If the extra 25% tariff that President Trump has announced on imports from India remains in place, India’s attractiveness as an emerging manufacturing hub will be hugely undermined. Global oil prices would probably rise if India responded by curtailing …
6th August 2025
