UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Mar. 2025) With the downside risks on activity shrinking and high price pressures being sustained, the Bank of England is probably becoming increasingly likely to pause interest rate cuts. 24th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA will cut less aggressively than RBNZ Both Antipodean economies seem to have turned a corner at the end of last year, and we expect the recoveries to gather momentum in the coming quarters. Given the tight labour market and elevated... 25th March 2025 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily Europe’s stock market: no big tech, no big sweat The prospect of looser fiscal policy in Germany isn’t the only significant reason MSCI’s Europe Index has outperformed its USA Index since Donald Trump returned to the White House. The ‘big-tech’... 21st March 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Prices, population and politics The stronger-than-expected rebound in inflation in February and sharp rise in firms’ selling price expectations this month complicates things for the Bank of Canada in its attempts to combat inflation... 21st March 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Fed operating in the dark The Fed is struggling to provide forward guidance without clear policy direction from the new administration. Even though rate-setters expect core PCE inflation to end the year at close to 3%, the... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Tighter monetary and fiscal policy for longer With the Bank of England tilting towards a slower pace of interest rate cuts and the Chancellor shifting towards tighter fiscal policy, the risks are tilted towards monetary and fiscal policy exerting... 21st March 2025 · 10 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) The sharp drop in retail sales volumes in January is not a major concern, coming off a massive GST holiday-driven surge the month before. The worry is that it could signal what's to come, with the... 21st March 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (March 2025) The latest data suggest that the world economy has made a relatively weak start to 2025. Activity in China has been soft so far this year amid a pullback in fiscal spending, while a surge in US... 21st March 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Feb. 2025) Although it will have no impact on the fiscal update next week, the significant overshoot in borrowing in February highlights the Chancellor’s tight fiscal backdrop. The Office for Budget... 21st March 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Net migration to slow further, supporting disinflation We learned this week that Australia's population growth continued to slow in Q3 2024, as net migration flows eased significantly. We believe that concerns about a potential resurgence in international... 21st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Tariff front-running will be followed by export slump The recent strength in export volumes seems to reflect efforts to front-run US tariffs. While that is providing a boost to activity now, it will only magnify the hit to exports once those tariffs are... 21st March 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Feb 2025) The small rise in existing home sales in February is unlikely to mark the start of a period of strength for buying activity given that purchase mortgage applications, which lead transactions by a... 20th March 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update BoE may pause the rate cutting cycle, but not for long While leaving interest rates at 4.50% today, the Bank of England seemed less committed to continuing to cut rates by 25bps every quarter. We had already been pondering this possibility and today’s... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) A large drag from net trade will likely tip GDP growth into negative territory this quarter but we should see a rebound in Q2. Nonetheless, we expect quarterly growth to be weaker this year on average... 20th March 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (20th Mar. 2025) For an updated and more detailed version of this analysis, click here. The Bank of England was always going to continue its cut-hold-cut-hold pattern by leaving interest rates at 4.50% today but, in... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
