US Economics Update A primer on the USMCA joint review We think the popularity of the trade agreement among domestic firms, the potential for backlash from an increasingly assertive Congress, and the likelihood of intervention by the Supreme Court should... 18th February 2026 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Jan 2026) January’s stronger production data were accompanied by downward revisions to previous months, limiting the good news. However, signs of broadening strength in production last month paired with the... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Dec. 2025) The fall in durable goods orders in December reflected a drag from volatile commercial aircraft orders, whereas core orders (ex. transport) continued their recent good run, supported by the AI... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Fiscal Statement Preview: Possible flashpoint for Starmer/Reeves The Chancellor’s fiscal statement to Parliament on Tuesday 3rd March has the potential to be another flashpoint for Prime Minister Starmer and Chancellor Reeves. But whether Starmer/Reeves hang on or... 18th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade to beat consensus expectations (again) World goods trade grew by about 4.5% in 2025 – its highest rate since 2011, except for the pandemic rebound in 2021. And we expect it to expand by a consensus-beating 2.5% or so this year. Alongside... 18th February 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan. 2026) Coming on the back of the further easing in wage growth in yesterday’s release, the decline in CPI inflation from 3.4% in December to 3.0% in January (consensus 3.0%, CE 3.1%, BoE 2.9%) may be just... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to hold fire on rate hikes until 2027 The new RBNZ Governor, Anna Breman, didn’t rock the boat at her inaugural meeting today. The Committee predictably left rates unchanged, while arguing that risks to the outlook remained two-sided... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (Feb. 2026) Although the RBNZ remains cautious about the near-term outlook, it seems open to normalising policy settings before long. 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4 2025) Although the pickup in wage growth last quarter was driven in part by one-off factors, a look under the hood suggests that wage pressures will be slow to recede over the year ahead. Insofar as that... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jan 2026) The further moderation in core inflation in January lends support to our view that it will decline to 2.0% by the middle of the year, which is a faster pace of disinflation than the Bank of Canada... 17th February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Dec./Jan. 2026) The lack of green shoots of recovery in the labour market and further fall in wage growth supports the idea that the Bank of England has at least a couple more interest rate cuts in its locker, with... 17th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Dec. 2025) The pick-up in manufacturing sales in December was largely due to a rebound in auto sales following a temporary disruption in the prior month. While the survey evidence is showing some tentative signs... 16th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Improving jobs market weakens case for more Fed cuts January's employment report was about as good as could have been hoped for, with a 172,000 rise in private payrolls comfortably beating expectations and the unemployment rate dropping further to 4.3%... 13th February 2026 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Up-and-down week foreshadows CUSMA renegotiation A week of political drama, much of it emanating from south of the border, provides useful insight into how we can expect the CUSMA renegotiation to unfold. 13th February 2026 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jan 2026) The 0.28% m/m increase in core CPI in January was mainly due to a bigger 0.38% m/m gain in core services prices, with core goods prices unchanged, suggesting that tariffs and unseasonably large hikes... 13th February 2026 · 2 mins read
