UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Apr. 2026) The surprisingly strong rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in April shows that house prices have continued to gain momentum despite the falls in consumer confidence and the rise in... 1st May 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Plenty of inflation still in the pipeline for Australia While the pickup in Australia’s inflation rate in Q1 fell short of the analyst consensus, it remains far too high for the RBA’s comfort. Moreover, with the indirect effects of higher energy prices on... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The worst is yet to come for Australia’s housing market Australian house prices all but ground to a halt last month. And with affordability set to deteriorate further in the near term, we expect house prices to fall outright before long. Much to the RBA’s... 30th April 2026 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Jobs growth to stabilise after choppy start to the year After a volatile few months, we estimate non-farm payrolls increased by a softer 55,000 in April, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4%. 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE on hold for now, but rate hike risks are rising The Bank of England’s further hawkish tilt while leaving interest rates unchanged at 3.75% suggests the chances of near-term rate hikes are rising. If oil prices fall back to about $95pb as in our... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q1 2026) The rebound in first-quarter GDP growth was partly driven by the reversal of the earlier government shutdown drag, but final sales to private domestic purchasers (FSPFP) also expanded at a solid 2.5%... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Feb. 2026) GDP growth looks to have rebounded to 1.5% annualised last quarter, in line with the projection in the Bank’s updated Monetary Policy Report (MPR). With the economic backdrop notably improved for a... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (30th Apr. 2026) The Bank of England’s hawkish tilt around its decision to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% suggests the chances of near-term rate hikes are rising. If oil prices fall back to around $95pb as we expect... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar. 26) The March activity data only show a small economic hit from the energy shock so far but we still think that the economy will slow noticeably over the next couple of quarters. 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Powell remaining on the Board makes Warsh’s difficult task even harder The FOMC’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged today, accompanied by moderately more hawkish communications, was overshadowed by Chair Jerome Powell announcing in the subsequent press... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Apr 2026) While leaving interest rates unchanged today, the Fed maintained its easing bias, reinforcing our view that its next move is more likely to be a cut than a hike. That said, the Fed's communications... 29th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank admits higher growth and oil prices could require hikes The hawkish messaging surrounding the Bank of Canada’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, paired with its revised projections for higher growth this year and next, mean there are growing upside... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Apr 2026) The hawkish messaging surrounding the Bank of Canada’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, paired with its updated projections for higher growth this year and next, make us slightly more nervous... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Upside risks to our forecast for household bank deposits to ease Given the fall in households’ real incomes will mean households have less cash to save, we expect the monthly flow into bank deposits to ease in our baseline scenario. But if we are wrong, it is... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders, Advance Economic Indicators (Mar. 2026) & Housing Starts (Feb./Mar. 2026) The batch of data just published suggest the risks to our estimate that first-quarter GDP growth will come in at 2.5% annualised in tomorrow’s advance release are skewed to the upside. 29th April 2026 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will raise rates to 4.60% in Q3 The RBA will raise rates by another 25bp, to 4.35%, at its meeting next week. While the Bank will likely acknowledge that downside risks to activity have risen, it will put more emphasis on the upside... 29th April 2026 · 8 mins read
