UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jan. 2025) With the labour market cooling rather than collapsing and wage growth stuck in the 5.5-6.0% range, we doubt the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 4.50% today. The next cut will probably be... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Feb. 25) 20th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed continues to project two 25bp rate cuts this year Although the FOMC stuck to its projection for two rate cuts this year, a growing number of officials share our view that further loosening is unlikely amid the increased upside risks to inflation... 19th March 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Mar. 2025) Although the FOMC stuck to its median projection for two interest rate cuts this year, some officials now share our view that further loosening is unlikely and we continue to think that Fed officials... 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update CE UK Employment Indicator signals cooling not collapse Our new CE UK Employment Indicator, which extracts the overall signal from a range of measures of employment, suggests that while employment growth has continued to slow in Q1 this year, it is cooling... 19th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Focus A bear market could happen without a recession The recent slump in the S&P 500 raised the spectre of a bear market. But even if one happened this year – rather than next year as we have been tacitly assuming in our forecasts – in response to the... 19th March 2025 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.5% by 2027 With the Bank of Japan sounding a bit more worried about downside risks to activity from US tariffs than about upside risks to inflation, we’re pushing back our forecast for the next rate hike from... 19th March 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update PREA consensus forecasts still well above our US CRE returns The latest PREA consensus forecasts reveal a downward revision in total returns and capital value changes across most sectors, especially for offices and industrial. However, the consensus remains... 18th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Feb 2025) The rise in industrial production in February should further soothe concerns that the economy is on the cusp of recession. Nonetheless, with production supported by rebounds in motor vehicle and... 18th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The large upside surprise to CPI inflation in February, together with another set of above-target consistent gains in CPI-trim and CPI-median, reduces the chance of the Bank of Canada cutting interest... 18th March 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Feb. 2025) The sharp rebound in housing starts in February and healthy permit issuance shows that the housing market is still holding up well. Nonetheless, with tariff concerns continuing to weigh on... 18th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update Tariffs matter more for Canadian markets than the election While a notable shift in Canadian fiscal policy is likely regardless of who wins the upcoming election, we doubt this will move the needle for the loonie or Canadian government bonds, given that the... 18th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Mar. 2025) While unseasonably severe winter weather has undoubtedly played some role in the recent weakness of home sales, we suspect the sharp drop in house prices in February can also be blamed on the growing... 17th March 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Feb. 2025) Although retail sales only edged up in February, the much larger rebound in control group sales – which feeds into the BEA’s consumption estimate – is something of a relief after the collapse in the... 17th March 2025 · 2 mins read
