Global Economics Update PMIs show price pressures easing outside the US The latest flash PMIs point to weak activity and a softening of price pressures in advanced economies outside the US. But the surveys suggest that tariffs are already having an inflationary impact in... 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Global Inflation Watch: Disinflation to continue outside the US Inflation has fallen further towards central banks’ targets and we expect it to remain subdued across most of the world. Tariffs will cause a temporary uplift in the US. But elsewhere, their economic... 22nd May 2025 · 19 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (May 2025) Despite the modest rebound in the composite activity PMI in May, at face value it is consistent with the bumper 0.7% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 being followed by a 0.2% q/q fall in Q2. But signs of some... 22nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Apr. 2025) April’s public finances figures showed that despite the boost from the rise in employers’ National Insurance Contributions (NICs), the fiscal year got off to a poor start. This raises the chances that... 22nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cuts won’t result in faster house price growth With housing affordability still extremely stretched, we expect house price growth to remain muted even as mortgage rates are set to fall further. However, there’s more scope for dwellings prices to... 22nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (May 25) The ongoing weakness in activity, coupled with softer price pressures, will keep the Bank of Japan in wait and watch mode in the near term. 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Flash PMIs (May 2025) The step-down in business activity this month, combined with signs of easing price pressures, supports our view that the RBA’s easing cycle has further to run. 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (May 2025) The near-term outlook for Canada is a little bleak. After a solid first quarter, we expect GDP growth to be muted as the imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come weighs on exports, consumer... 21st May 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Apr. 2025) The bigger-than-expected jump in CPI inflation in April suggests that the persistence of inflation is a bit stronger and/or businesses are passing on more of the recent rises in taxes than we thought... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ Watch: RBNZ will hand down another dovish 25bp cut The RBNZ is all but certain to cut its cash rate by 25bp, to 3.25%, at its meeting ending on 28th May. With the recovery showing signs of faltering, the labour market remaining weak, and underlying... 21st May 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (April 25) With US tariffs weighing on Japanese exports, net trade will continue to act as a drag on activity in the near term. 21st May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Tariff revenue should largely offset new tax cuts The budget reconciliation bill currently working its way through the House of Representatives, which includes a permanent extension of the original Trump tax cuts plus cut-down versions of his... 20th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Apr. 2025) The removal of the carbon tax sent energy prices tumbling in April, pushing headline inflation below the 2% target. More concerningly, the Bank’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures rose... 20th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.35% by year-end When the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25bp at its meeting today, it signalled greater confidence that it had brought inflation under control, while sounding increasingly concerned that... 20th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (May 2025) With the Bank growing increasingly concerned about downside risks to the economy, there is a good chance that it will cut rates further than we are currently anticipating this cycle. 20th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily US downgrade comes at tough time for Treasuries The decision by Moody’s to downgrade the US government’s credit rating highlights that there are several potential storm clouds on the horizon for Treasuries, even if the downgrade itself doesn’t seem... 19th May 2025 · 5 mins read
