UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (May 2026) While some leading indicators point to a sharp slowdown in house price inflation in the coming months, the smaller rise in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran war than in past shocks and the... 28th May 2026 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Softer payroll gain and unemployment rate to rise We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a smaller 65,000 in May, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.4%. 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Apr 2026) The softer-than-expected 0.24% m/m gain in the core PCE deflator in April buys the Fed a bit of time as it waits to see how higher oil prices will feed through to broader inflation pressures... 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending (April 2026) The fall in household spending in April will give the RBA pause for thought, raising risks to our view that it will deliver one final 25bp hike in Q3. 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Solid apartment fundamentals remain intact despite immigration slowdown Concerns that this administration’s anti-immigration push would trigger a sharp national slowdown in apartment demand have been misplaced. While unauthorised immigration has turned deeply negative... 27th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Limited second-round risks reduce need for rate hikes Fears that the Iran conflict will trigger a sustained resurgence in inflation and a renewed global tightening cycle appear somewhat overdone. Admittedly, inflation in advanced economies looks set to... 27th May 2026 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ set to hike rates in July The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold today came down to the wire, and it signalled that it would need to unwind its accommodative stance sooner rather than later. Accordingly, we’re bringing... 27th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (May 2026) The RBNZ narrowly voted to leave rates on hold today and it seems like a hike could come sooner than our current forecast of Q4. That said, with the output gap still deeply negative, the Bank doesn’t... 27th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (April 2026) With price pressures somewhat contained for now, the RBA is all but certain to pause its tightening cycle in June. However, if we’re right that the rise in underlying inflation has further to run, the... 27th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Mar. 2026) Back-to-back house price declines in February in March, before the full effects of the Iran war on mortgage rates would even have been felt, suggest now is the time to downgrade our forecast. Rather... 26th May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update How will the UK government raise defence spending? An increase in defence spending could represent a significant source of extra demand in the UK. But the UK’s weak fiscal position suggests higher defence spending will need to be mostly funded by tax... 26th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Could the BoJ lift rates into restrictive territory? The inflationary consequences of the Iran War have made us more confident in our view that the BoJ’s policy rate will climb to a neutral level of around 2% before long. However, the hurdles for the... 26th May 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed alert to rising price pressures The hawkish tone of the Fed’s late-April minutes shows it would be ready to demonstrate its inflation-fighting credentials if it felt compelled to do so. We judge this would require a broadening in... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Mar. 2026) The 0.7% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in March was not as large as feared amid mixed signs that the surge in gasoline prices weighed on discretionary spending. Regardless, the advance sales values... 22nd May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market too weak to generate big second-round effects We have been saying for some time that the current economic backdrop is much less conducive to a long-lasting bout of inflation than it was in 2022. This week’s news only adds to that feeling. As a... 22nd May 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will lift rates to 2% by end-2027 We learned this week that the Japanese economy was in solid shape on the eve of the Iran war. Moreover, the May PMIs suggest that the Bank of Japan’s fears of a steep downturn are unlikely to... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
