Canada Economics Weekly Higher oil prices to boost inflation more than GDP The surge in oil prices will be positive for the economy, but pipeline capacity constraints mean that the boost to real GDP growth will be only modest. Nonetheless, together with the impact on... 6th March 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Middle East conflict to raise UK inflation more than it cuts growth We will wait for more clarity on events in the Middle East before altering our inflation, GDP and Bank Rate forecasts. But in a scenario in which oil and gas prices remain close to current levels... 6th March 2026 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Feb 2026) Even allowing for the strikes by 31,000 Kaiser Permanente health care workers in California and Hawaii and 15,000 nurses in NYC, the 92,000 decline in payroll employment in February, combined with the... 6th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) The breakdown of January retail sales raises some doubts about whether the weakness was primarily due to the harsh winter weather, with sales of building material & garden equipment unexpectedly doing... 6th March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Feb. 2026) The 0.3% m/m rise in the Halifax measure of house prices in February provides further evidence that the recent improvement in the housing market has continued. We think housing will pick-up further... 6th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Energy price spike more bane than boon for Australia Despite being a net energy exporter, Australia is unlikely to gain much from the ongoing surge in energy prices. This is largely because oil and gas firms are not reinvesting their profits to boost... 6th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Middle East conflict lowers odds of near-term rate hike Japan looks better placed than most Asian economies to weather the disruption to energy supply caused by the conflict in the Middle East. However, a slowdown in economic activity in other countries in... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update What next for UK petrol and utility prices, inflation and interest rates We’ve refreshed our scenarios for what the Middle East conflict could mean for CPI inflation and also fleshed out what the leap in energy prices could mean for petrol prices, utility prices and... 5th March 2026 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Higher oil prices not the only problem for the Fed The jump in oil prices comes at a time when other indicators of near-term inflationary pressures are also beginning to look a bit more concerning. Accordingly, even if oil prices fall back sooner... 5th March 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update UK industry, hotels and retail vulnerable to rising energy costs The recent rise in the UK wholesale gas price due to the events in the Middle East, so far, points to only a modest rise in firms’ energy costs. But industry and those services sectors hit hardest by... 5th March 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Productivity (Q4 2025) The productivity data released today confirm that, thanks to the large negative benchmark payroll revisions for 2025, productivity growth was stronger than originally estimated over the first three... 5th March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Slower UK interest rate cuts more likely than rate hikes While parallels are being made with the energy price shock caused by the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the rise in energy prices as a result of the conflict in the Middle East has so far been smaller... 5th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Jan. 26) The tepid rise in consumer spending lessens the urgency for the RBA to hike rates at its upcoming meeting in mid-March. Even so, the Bank has more work to do in order to close the positive output gap... 5th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What the Middle East conflict means for world trade The conflict in the Middle East threatens not only energy trade but also other trade flows, albeit to a lesser extent. The risk to container shipping is limited by the fact that the region was already... 4th March 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Feb. 2026) The broad-based strength in the February ISM Services Index, along with the recent improvement in the manufacturing index, suggests the underlying economy is reaccelerating. Indeed, it leaves our... 4th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia's public sector adding to inflationary pressures Australia’s public sector can’t be blamed for the renewed acceleration in inflation across the second half of last year. But the inexorable surge in public spending in recent years is a key reason why... 4th March 2026 · 3 mins read
