UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Past the worst? The further fall in GDP in May provided yet another excuse to talk down the UK economy. But there is some evidence that we are past the worst and the situation will improve from here (or, at the least... 11th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jun 2025) The strong 83,100 rise in employment and the dip in the unemployment rate in June suggests the labour market is in better shape than we had feared, despite ongoing uncertainty around Canada’s trade... 11th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Stalling trade negotiations may delay BoJ rate hikes We still expect a trade deal with the US to be agree upon after the Upper House elections on 20 th July. However, given that very few countries have managed to reach an agreement so far, the... 11th July 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (May 2025) The hangover from the burst of activity in Q1 ahead of rises in US tariffs and UK stamp charges continued in May with GDP falling by 0.1% m/m. This leaves GDP on track to rise by just 0.1% q/q in Q2... 11th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA to drag out easing cycle as caution prevails The RBA’s decision to leave rates unchanged at its meeting this week came as a surprise to most. As it turns out, a majority of the Board preferred to wait for the full Q2 CPI data (due by end-July)... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook US Housing Outlook: No clear path to housing recovery Activity in the housing market has been struck in a slump since 2023, with still no end in sight. As Trump’s immigration and trade policies push up inflation this year, the Fed will be forced to keep... 10th July 2025 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Brazil just isn’t big enough to rattle global markets Donald Trump’s planned imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazil for seemingly political reasons may represent a new milestone, but Brazil simply isn’t a big enough trading partner of the US to rattle... 10th July 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun. 2025) While June’s RICS survey suggests most of the recent weakness in the housing market was due to the temporary influence of the change in stamp duty, it doesn’t yet point to a marked recovery in demand... 10th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (June 17-18 2025) The minutes of the mid-June FOMC meeting show most Fed officials content to wait and see what impact tariffs and other government policies had on inflation and the labour market before committing to... 9th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Plenty of margin for error when it comes to tariffs Even if tariffs on US imports don’t rise substantially more next month for many countries after yet another delay, who is ‘paying’ for the increases in tariffs that have already occurred and appear... 9th July 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Immigration crackdown hitting labour supply After stemming the inflow of unauthorised immigration over the Southwest border, the Trump administration now appears to be gradually ramping up the number of detentions and removals. This crackdown... 9th July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (June 2025) The rise in purchase mortgage applications in June supports our view that transactions will pick up in the second half of the year, even if they remain depressed by historical standards. 9th July 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (July 2025) While the RBNZ predictably left rates on hold today, it signalled that it was likely to loosen policy further as long as capacity pressures continued to ease. As a result, we’re sticking to our... 9th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook US Apartment Metros Outlook: Houston apartment market set for lift-off The size and speed of the apartment market recovery will vary widely across the 17 metros we cover over our five-year forecast. Southern markets are generally set to outperform, backed by strong... 8th July 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Slower UK house price growth in 2025, bigger rebound in 2026 The continued weakness in the housing market over the first six months of this year and the cracking labour market means we now expect the recovery in house prices to start later and be slower. But... 8th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will resume easing cycle in August While the Reserve Bank of Australia’s today defied widespread expectations of a rate cut, we still expect the Bank to resume its easing cycle at its August meeting. And with GDP growth still sluggish... 8th July 2025 · 3 mins read
