US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Mar 2026) First-quarter manufacturing growth was the strongest in more than four years, but that largely reflects a rebound from a particularly weak fourth quarter. With higher energy prices set to be a drag on... 16th April 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update What does the Iran war mean for UK loan arrears? While higher unemployment and mortgage rates due to the Iran war suggest the share of loans in arrears will rise over the next few years, even in an adverse scenario it will remain low relative to... 16th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How could non-energy shortages affect supply chains? In the coming months, depressed shipments of non-energy commodities through the Strait of Hormuz risk disrupting some supply chains using aluminium, plastics and synthetic rubber. The risks are... 16th April 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Feb. 2026) The surprisingly strong 0.5% m/m in February (consensus forecast 0.1%, Capital Economics 0.2%) and the upward revision to January GDP from 0.0% m/m to +0.1% m/m suggests the economy went into the... 16th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (March 2026) The latest data will reinforce the RBA’s assessment that upside risks to inflation are greater than downside risks to the labour market. 16th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Core PCE-CPI inflation gap to narrow later this year Most of the factors causing the unusual situation of core PCE inflation being higher than core CPI inflation should reverse by the turn of the year, with core PCE inflation falling while core CPI... 15th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales (Feb 2026) The healthy rebound in both manufacturing and wholesale sales in February was expected given the end of seasonal retooling at various automakers, and supports the view that GDP edged higher that month... 15th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Initial war hit to world trade appears small After a strong start to the year, the early signs are that disruptions from the Iran war did not deal a heavy blow to world trade in March. In other trade developments, China continues to gain global... 15th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Business investment boom not on the cards The recent surge in machinery orders seems to vindicate concerns by some BoJ Board members that the Bank is falling behind the curve. However, other indicators are less upbeat and with the energy cost... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Mar 2026) After a strong couple of months, the downside surprise in core producer prices in March offers some encouragement for the Fed that pipeline inflation pressures are not spiralling out of control... 14th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Mar. 2026) Existing home sales fell back below the historically weak 4m annualised level in March and prospects for April do not look much better, as timely indicators point to weakening housing demand following... 13th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Households lack cushion against gasoline price shock The sharp fall in the saving rate to 4.0% in February predates the Iran war and may signal what lies ahead as households absorb much higher fuel bills. This limited cushion suggests households will... 10th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Signals from the April meetings 30th April 2026, 3:00PM BST This online briefing examined the latest decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, and how policymakers are balancing the inflationary impact of higher energy p
Event Drop-In: Private credit ‘cockroaches' and macro and market risk 21st April 2026, 3:00PM BST Are signs of stress in private credit a risk to broader financial markets? What could this mean for funding across the US economy? And is this anything like 2008?
Canada Economics Weekly USTR’s CUSMA guarantee will do little to settle nerves US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer's comments this week confirm that the Trump administration will not elect to renew CUSMA on July 1st, raising uncertainty over when a new trade framework will be... 10th April 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr 2026) The plunge in consumer sentiment to a record low in April lends some support to our forecast that real consumption growth will be weak this quarter, even if the link between sentiment and spending has... 10th April 2026 · 2 mins read
