Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (July 25) 8th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Tariff uncertainty may delay BoJ rate hikes until 2026 Our base case remains that Japan will reach a deal with the US to fend off the threatened 25% US tariff. If that deal is reached soon and includes no or only a modest increase in the US tariff rate... 8th July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump threatens 14 countries with higher reciprocal tariffs President Donald Trump has now released “letters” to 14 countries today, announcing that, unless they negotiate a deal over the next few weeks, he will impose reciprocal tariffs on those countries... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook UK Outlook: Labour market cracking The falls in employment triggered by the Chancellor’s rises in National Insurance Contributions for employers and the minimum wage have increased our confidence that it is only a matter of time before... 7th July 2025 · 18 mins read
US Economics Update Weaker dollar not a significant inflationary threat A weaker dollar should not compound the upward pressure on goods prices from tariffs too greatly given that the greenback remains strong by historical standards and, in any case, the pass-through of... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jun. 2025) The stagnation in the Halifax house price index in June suggests that the housing market remains slow to recover from both the rise in stamp duty on 1st April and the weak economy. While there are... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Summer sun may shine on the S&P 500 There may be little to stand in the way of further gains in the S&P 500 this summer, provided today’s enactment of the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ is followed next week by a market-friendly decision on... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Trade woes continue The May trade release underscored the difficulties facing exporters. On the face of it the data were positive, as exports rose by 1.1% while imports fell by 1.6% m/m. This was off the back of a grim... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Market jitters increase the chances of further tax rises While this week's gilt-sterling sell-off was short-lived, it's left a gloomy cloud over the one-year anniversary of the government's election victory. If the Chancellor is going to continue to meet... 4th July 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Could the RBA stand pat next Tuesday? Some observers have argued that the ongoing calm in global markets may prompt the RBA to leave rates unchanged at its 8th July meeting, given its preference to move in a cautious manner. However, we... 4th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Trade negotiations go down to the wire The temporary pause on the 24% “reciprocal” tariff Trump imposed on imports from Japan in April is due to expire next week. As things stand, a deal with Japan looks unlikely and it’s possible that... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (May 25) The strong pickup in household spending in May is likely overstating the momentum behind private consumption. As a result, we don’t think it will stand in the way of the RBA loosening policy settings... 4th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Budget reconciliation + tariffs will leave deficit unchanged With the House of Representatives today passing the Senate’s bigger version of the budget reconciliation, the Republicans appear to have met President Trump’s timeline – to have the bill reach his... 3rd July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) The big 0.8% m/m fall in Nationwide house prices in June suggests that the housing market is still struggling to recover from both the stamp duty-induced lull and the weak economy. While some leading... 3rd July 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Reconciliation bill inches away from finish line Although the cost of the final reconciliation bill looks set to be much larger than the House originally planned, it will not result in any meaningful stimulus for the economy. President Trump will... 3rd July 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jun. 2025) The rebound in the ISM services index in June is broadly consistent with our view that economic growth will slow rather than collapse in the second half of the year. While the prices paid index edged... 3rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
