Event Drop-In: UK outlook – Assessing macro scenarios through 2026 and beyond 7th May 2026, 3:00PM BST The UK entered 2026 already facing a challenging economic backdrop. Since then, the Iran conflict has only added fresh uncertainty, while the outcome of May’s local elections is bound to raise new...
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) Higher gasoline prices will weigh moderately on consumption, but there are signs that investment will broaden out beyond AI-related spending. We expect GDP growth to average 2.2% this year and next... 23rd April 2026 · 0 mins read
US Fed Watch Powell’s departure upstaged as Warsh readies Fed revamp The FOMC will leave the fed funds target range at 3.50–3.75% next week, while likely providing a slightly more hawkish policy statement. But assuming Chair Powell doesn’t go rogue at what should be... 23rd April 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Apr. 2026) April’s flash PMIs suggest that so far the economy is holding up better against the headwinds from the Iran war than in our baseline scenario, but that inflation will rise further. This may well lead... 23rd April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Mar. 2026) March’s figures showed an unexpected undershoot of the OBR’s forecast for public borrowing in 2025/26. But we do not expect this improvement to last long. We think the energy price shock will mean... 23rd April 2026 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Elevated oil prices to give BoC meeting a hawkish tilt The improved growth backdrop and nascent threat of higher inflation expectations means the Bank of Canada will keep rates on hold again but likely take a more hawkish tone at its meeting next week. 22nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Why Treasuries are unlikely to regain a lot more ground The main reason why the yields of long-dated Treasuries haven’t dropped all the way back to their levels before the start of the Iran war is a major reassessment of the prospects for Fed policy. And... 22nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) The economic fallout from events in the Middle East is developing broadly in line with our baseline scenario, leaving WTI on track to average $80/barrel in the second half of the year. The reduced... 22nd April 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2026) The rise in CPI inflation from 3.0% in February to 3.3% in March (consensus and CE forecast 3.3%) was almost entirely due to higher fuel prices and tells us little about whether the leap in energy... 22nd April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Little sign yet of spillovers from private credit While investors are trying to pull funds away from private credit, there is little sign yet of any spillovers that might be forcing traditional lenders to tighten their credit standards. 21st April 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Mar. 2026) The sharp rise in retail sales in March mainly reflects the surge in gasoline prices, but control group sales were also stronger than we anticipated. That leaves us to estimate that real consumption... 21st April 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Feb./Mar. 2026) While the fall in the unemployment rate in February suggests the labour market was stabilising around the turn of the year, the decline in payroll employment in March suggests that the rise in energy... 21st April 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2026) While headline inflation remains well above the midpoint of the RBNZ’s target, the continued softening of underlying inflation means that the Bank won’t be in a rush to tighten policy. 21st April 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys show war putting nascent recovery at risk The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys show that easing concern among firms and households regarding trade tensions have been swiftly replaced by fresh anxieties about falling activity and... 20th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Mar 2026) The broadly target-consistent gain in an average of the Bank of Canada’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures in March will persuade policymakers to look through the jump in the all-items... 20th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing yet to find its stride The manufacturing sector continues to struggle, with production down in March and little changed over the past year. However, tentative signs that foreign producers are investing to expand their US... 17th April 2026 · 5 mins read
