US Fed Watch Fed Watch: Fed to stand firm amid the noise We expect the underlying strength in the economy and uncertainty over the policy outlook to keep the Fed in “wait-and-see” mode next week. The updated Summary of Economic Projections are likely to... 11th June 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update The tough decisions for the UK Chancellor won’t end here The 2025 Spending Review is the tightest (outside of the austerity years in the early 2010s) since 2000 and the tough decisions for Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, won’t end here. The government’s U-turns... 11th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (June 2025) The economy faces a prolonged period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1%... 11th June 2025 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (May 2025) The muted 0.1% m/m rise in the core CPI in May is not quite as good as it looks, with our preliminary estimate pointing to a 0.20% rise in the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator ahead of the PPI data... 11th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BOJ Watch: Bank of Japan will resume tightening in October We suspect that the Bank of Japan will stick to its downbeat outlook for economic activity at its upcoming meeting. However, we doubt that trade tensions will weigh on inflation as much as... 10th June 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Apr./May 2025) With payrolls plunging, the unemployment rate climbing and wage growth easing, today’s labour market release leaves us more confident in our view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from... 10th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Focus Risk of US fiscal crisis rising The Federal debt is undoubtedly on an unsustainable path. The debt burden is already close to 100% of GDP and, with the budget deficit likely to remain close to 6% of GDP for the foreseeable future... 9th June 2025 · 20 mins read
US Economics Update Foreign visitor slump could lend the Fed a hand A slump in the number of foreign visitors to the US could prove to be a helpful source of deflationary pressure this year, while having a limited impact on GDP growth. 9th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: The Start of the Deal? While a new trade and security deal between the US and Canada looks to be on the horizon, the Canadian government is right to begin exploring other avenues too. Lowering interprovincial trade barriers... 6th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Investors don’t seem very worried about the US economy May’s Employment Report in the US ought to assuage concerns about the economy after some softer data earlier this week. But even if growth there holds up over the rest of the year, investors’ current... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Three things to watch in the Spending Review Next week’s Spending Review will shine a light on the UK’s tight fiscal position. And the Chancellor’s problems are far from over. U-turns on benefit and welfare spending and higher borrowing costs... 6th June 2025 · 9 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (May 2025) The rise in employment in May was better than expected but, paired with recent data, still shows that the labour market is struggling. We are therefore sticking to our view that the Bank of Canada... 6th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (May 2025) The 139,000 gain in non-farm payrolls was not as good as it looks, given its narrow breadth and the 95,000 downgrade to payroll gains over the prior two months. Nevertheless, it shows that tariffs are... 6th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Soft GDP data put July cut in play for RBA With Australia's economic recovery faltering, there is a growing risk that the RBA will cut rates at its next meeting in July, rather than in August as we currently forecast. However, even if the Bank... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (May 2025) The fall back in house prices on the Halifax measure in May increases the chances that more of the recent soft patch in the housing market is due to the subdued economy than the temporary effects of... 6th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Trump unlikely to drive down drug prices substantially If President Trump succeeded in his aim of cutting prescription drug prices by 50% “almost immediately”, it could subtract more than 1%-point from headline PCE inflation. There is little indication of... 5th June 2025 · 5 mins read
