Japan Economics Focus The impact of the China shock on Japan’s economy Japan has weathered the China shock well so far, largely because the sharp weakening of the yen has kept Japanese exports competitive. However, the exchange rate is unlikely to keep weakening rapidly... 18th May 2026 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tax changes not a major threat to housing market Some commentators have been arguing that the tax changes announced in last week’s Budget will end the 30-year super cycle in housing. By contrast, we’re not convinced that the attractiveness of... 18th May 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly This time is transitory? Kevin Warsh now begins his four-year term as Fed Chair, but the April price data suggest he will have a tough time persuading his FOMC colleagues that they should cut interest rates again in this... 15th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC still biding its time while war plays out The Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada’s April meeting didn’t give too much away, though the optimist in us would argue that the tone was less hawkish than in prior communications. This... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Apr 2026) The 0.6% m/m rise in manufacturing output in April was partly due to a rebound in the transportation equipment sector, but there are also signs that the AI buildout is beginning to support activity... 15th May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political uncertainty may stifle economy for rest of the year The way things are going at the moment, it is possible that we won't know whether or not Starmer will be removed as Prime Minister and, if he is, who will replace him until mid-August. And if there is... 15th May 2026 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (May 2026) There were some encouraging signs of stabilisation in the headline housing market indicators for April, but the further decline in the sales-to-new listing ratio and recent rise in fixed mortgage... 15th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Mar 2026) The 1.0% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales volumes in March takes them back in line with their 2025 average and the jump in the S&P Global manufacturing PMI in April bodes well for the near-term... 15th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Hawkish BoJ lifts 10-year yield to three-decade high The 10-year JGB yield climbed to a three decade high this week in response to hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan and reports that the government will compile a supplementary budget to keep the... 15th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Live chance of a rate hike at RBA’s June meeting Business surveys suggest that inflationary pressures continue to gain momentum in Australia. Although some of the increase in firms’ pricing intentions likely reflects noise, the RBA will still be... 15th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Markets aren’t braced for an ‘extreme’ scenario in the Iran war The Iran war poses two key threats to the global economy – higher inflation and weaker growth. Up until now, the markets have responded to the first but seemingly ignored – or at least ‘looked through... 14th May 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Apr 2026) The April retail sales data were a little softer than we expected but still lead us to estimate that real consumption edged up by 0.1% m/m last month. Moreover, the upward revisions to control group... 14th May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Mar./Q1 2026) GDP rose by a bumper 0.6% q/q in Q1 (consensus and CE forecast 0.6%), but this will be the high point for the year given the effects of the war in Iran will sap growth from Q2. In our baseline... 14th May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr. 2026) The recent plunge in buyer sentiment triggered by the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran appeared to stabilise in April. Even so, April’s RICS survey continues to suggest that the... 14th May 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Apr 2026) April’s stronger-than-expected PPI figures have little bearing on our estimate for a 0.30% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator in April. While still above the target-consistent pace, that is not as... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Big falls in nominal house prices unlikely, even in adverse scenario Despite its recent resilience, house price growth will probably slow over the coming months as the drag from higher mortgage rates triggered by the Iran war continues to grow. But big outright falls... 13th May 2026 · 5 mins read
