Capital Daily Back to the future? Just over a month ago, we ditched our long-held forecast that the S&P 500 would end this year at 7,000, and revised it all the way down to 5,500. While that looks like it might have been a mistake, we... 12th May 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update Assessing the risks to single-family home construction Fears that single-family housing starts are on the verge of collapse because of the large buildup of new homes for sale are overblown. The accumulation largely reflects smaller private builders... 12th May 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q1 US CRE activity sprouts, but tariffs weigh on recovery Commercial real estate investment climbed on a y/y basis in Q1, but recent surveys revealed that the unpredictability of policy changes and tariffs have dampened investor confidence. We expect this to... 12th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Exports hold up despite tariff blow Trade with the US plunged in March, but a spike in exports elsewhere meant that overall exports were little changed. Nonetheless, we doubt that exporters will be able to rely on non-US demand to... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Fed on hold as China trade talks begin The “full and comprehensive” trade deal between the US and the UK announced this week by President Donald Trump was none of those things. This rush to demonstrate progress on “deals” reveals a rising... 9th May 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: UK-US trade deal not a game changer; BoE’s hawkish shift We have argued that higher US tariffs wouldn’t reduce UK GDP by much. It follows that the UK-US trade deal won’t be a game changer. We also argued that investors had got ahead of themselves in... 9th May 2025 · 9 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Apr. 2025) Employment would have fallen again in April were it not for the boost from the federal election, which supports our view that the Bank of Canada will resume its loosening cycle next month and... 9th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Weakness in wage growth probably not genuine While the trade deal agreed between the UK and the US this week sets an encouraging precedent, there are no signs of progress in the talks between Japan and the US. Meanwhile, the recent slump in... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA to keep calm even as waters grow choppy At first glance, it would seem that downside risks to activity and inflation are growing in Australia. The ABS' household spending indicator suggests that consumer spending slowed to a halt in Q1... 9th May 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update UK-US trade deal is not a big deal The UK-US trade deal announced by President Trump and Prime Minister Starmer today won’t make a big difference to the UK economy as a whole, although it is more significant for certain sectors such as... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response UK-US "deal" reveals Trump's desperation to show progress on trade The “full and comprehensive” trade deal between the US and the UK announced in a rush today by President Donald Trump and PM Keir Starmer is no such thing. As Trump admitted in his press conference... 8th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update US domestic migration trends to persist, but flows from abroad are at risk The latest data from the Census Bureau show that regional and metro-level migration trends seen in the post-pandemic years persisted up to mid-2024. But the six major markets, along with other large... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Should we fear a surge in US student loan default rates? Student loan default rates are set to soar and the government will soon begin collections against defaulted loans for the first time since the pandemic. This is unlikely to be a big drag on households... 8th May 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update More UK rate cuts coming, but not as quickly as investors expected The Bank of England predictably cut interest rates from 4.50% to 4.25% today and gave the impression that it will continue to cut rates at the current pace of 25 basis points (bps) every quarter. As a... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Announcement (8th May 2025) While cutting interest rates from 4.50% to 4.25% today, the Bank of England poured some cold water on the markets’ expectations that it is going to speed up the pace of rate cuts. As it happens, we no... 8th May 2025 · 3 mins read
