Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (July 25) The July trade statistics suggest that higher US tariffs are still not having a major impact on Japan’s overall export performance, but we expect softer external demand to result in slower export... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Could UK property tax reforms boost the economy? The Chancellor is reportedly considering replacing stamp duty land tax and council tax with alternative property taxes in the Autumn Budget. Even if this was revenue-neutral, it could be more... 19th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) We now expect growth to average 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year, before slowing slightly in 2026. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to... 19th August 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Low volatility in Treasuries isn’t necessarily a worrying sign One feature of the summer lull in markets has been a slump in ICE BofAML’s MOVE Index of expected volatility in Treasuries, to its lowest level in more than three years. But this fall doesn’t... 19th August 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Why is inflation higher in the UK than in the euro-zone? The recent strength of inflation in the UK relative to that in the euro-zone appears to be mainly due to rises in “regulated” (i.e. government-set) prices, tax rises, and rents. These upward pressures... 19th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) July’s softer core price data, combined with favourable downward revisions to previous months’ figures, leave the three-month annualised average rate of CPI-trim and CPI-median at a more modest 2.4%... 19th August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update UK GDP revisions don’t alter scope for future growth or rate cuts The small upward revision to the level of real GDP doesn’t mean the economy will be any stronger in the future. And the downward revisions to some measures of inflation won’t influence the Bank of... 19th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Aug. 2025) The fourth consecutive rise in home sales in July means that the housing market is developing close to our expectations, with prices stabilising last month. Housing starts recorded another strong... 18th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Bank still wrestling with inflation concerns The Bank of Canada could still cut rates in September, depending on the outcome of next week's July price data and the quarterly GDP data released later this month. But the cautious tone on inflation... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Fed inching closer to rate cuts Ahead of the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, which kicks off late next week, markets are still wholly convinced that the Fed will cut rates by 25bp at the upcoming FOMC meeting in September and... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Aug 2025) The slump in the University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment to a three-month low of 58.6 in August, from 61.7, suggests that households remain very nervous about rising inflation in the wake... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jun. 2025) The small rebound in manufacturing sales in June will provide little relief, given that it barely offsets the weakness in April and May and the breakdown shows that US tariffs still have some sectors... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Can the economy maintain this strength? We don’t think the surprisingly strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year will carry over into the second half. The weak global economy suggests exports will drop back and the... 15th August 2025 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ will welcome resilience of Japan’s economy While faster productivity growth makes it easier for firms to absorb stronger wage growth, the Bank of Japan will welcome the resilience of consumer spending and business investment since Liberation... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Strong jobs market won’t keep RBA from easing further When the RBA delivered a 25bp cut this week, it signalled a willingness to lower rates below 3% for the first time this cycle. Although subsequently released labour market and wage data surprised... 15th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan GDP (Q2 25 Preliminary) GDP growth rebounded more strongly last quarter than most had anticipated but we still expect a renewed slowdown over the coming quarters. 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
