Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug. 25) While the August activity data confirm that Japan’s GDP declined this quarter, that follows a strong performance over the past year and we doubt it will prevent the BoJ from resuming its tightening... 30th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Weak economy to prompt more policy support The economy seems destined for a period of weak growth amid the US tariff shock and much lower immigration. We forecast average annual GDP growth of 1.0% next year, with a further rise in the... 29th September 2025 · 13 mins read
US Housing Market Update Lower rates to give mortgage lending a short-term lift We expect recent mortgage rate declines to support stronger lending and sales, prompting us to raise our end-2025 existing home sales forecast to 4.35m annualised, up from 4.15m. However, based on our... 29th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook AI boom to offset drag from immigration curbs We now expect tariffs to have only a very limited impact on both prices and activity, with the AI investment boom and the immigration crackdown proving to be the bigger economic drivers. With the AI... 29th September 2025 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Aug. 2025) There is little evidence in August’s money and lending figures that concerns over further tax rises in the Budget on 26th November are having a big influence on households’ financial decisions as of... 29th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Tokyo CPI is overstating the pace of disinflation The Tokyo CPI is overstating the pace at which inflation is moderating across Japan and we still believe that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle at its October meeting. 29th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Funding stalemate on Capitol Hill The clock is ticking for Congress to extend the Federal government’s spending authority, which will expire when the next fiscal year begins at 12:01am on October 1st (next Wednesday), triggering a... 26th September 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What if Starmer and Reeves are replaced? The government's vulnerability will make the job of stabilising the public finances and boosting economic growth more difficult. It also raises the risk of an altogether worse outcome – a fiscal... 26th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Population growth slowing to a crawl It seems likely that the Trump administration’s clamp down on legal immigration will boost the attractiveness of Canada for many migrants, but that won’t change the big picture that population growth... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Europe Outlook – Why the ECB could cut rates in 2026 2nd October 2025, 3:00PM BST The ECB insists interest rates are "in a good place", but it's a view which we think will shift in the coming year.
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jul. 2025) Although July GDP surprised to the upside, the flash estimate that output was unchanged in August will temper any optimism about the economy quickly gaining momentum. While a repeat of the sharp... 26th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Data flashing mixed signals, New RBNZ governor With Australian inflation surprising to the upside in August, markets now expect the RBA to deliver just one more 25bp cut this cycle, rather than two. However, with business surveys showing output... 26th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Manufacturers starting to shift production to US Falling US-bound exports are a headwind to economic activity in Japan. But as long as firms are able to keep serving US customers via their US subsidiaries, the impact on corporate profits, investment... 26th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (September 2025) The latest data are consistent with the world economy having recovered a bit more momentum in Q3. Industry has held up well, world trade has shrugged off tariffs, and an AI investment boom is underway... 25th September 2025 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Federal layoffs to weigh on job growth We forecast a 50,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in September, as the continued slimming of the federal workforce limits any rebound in private payrolls growth. We also expect the unemployment rate to... 25th September 2025 · 4 mins read
