Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Soft GDP data put July cut in play for RBA With Australia's economic recovery faltering, there is a growing risk that the RBA will cut rates at its next meeting in July, rather than in August as we currently forecast. However, even if the Bank... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (May 2025) The fall back in house prices on the Halifax measure in May increases the chances that more of the recent soft patch in the housing market is due to the subdued economy than the temporary effects of... 6th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Trump unlikely to drive down drug prices substantially If President Trump succeeded in his aim of cutting prescription drug prices by 50% “almost immediately”, it could subtract more than 1%-point from headline PCE inflation. There is little indication of... 5th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Still strong immigration will push unemployment higher Visa approvals for temporary residents have picked up, which suggests that, rather than contracting as the government previously outlined, the population will continue to grow this year. This will... 5th June 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Apr 2025) The huge narrowing of the trade deficit in April was largely driven by a steep drop in pharmaceutical product and gold bullion imports, reversing their earlier surge as tariff front-running ahead of... 5th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Apr. 2025) The jump in the trade deficit to a record high in April was larger than expected as tariff front-running reversed with “Liberation Day” and Canadian exporters paused to make more of their output USMCA... 5th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Apr. 2025) With base pay growth on a new upswing, we think the Bank of Japan will restart its hiking cycle before long. 5th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada bides its time, but cuts still coming The Bank of Canada avoided surprising markets by keeping its policy rate at 2.75% today, as it continues to wait to see the full impact of US trade policy on the economy. Nonetheless, the Bank... 4th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Section 899 might not be so taxing on US bonds and equities We doubt Section 899 of the One Big Beautiful Bill that passed the House of Representatives in May will have the big negative effects on US asset markets that some seem to fear, even if it remains... 4th June 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (May 2025) The surprise fall in the ISM services index for May suggests that tariff effects are weighing on activity outside of the manufacturing sector, but the Fed is likely to be more concerned by the further... 4th June 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jun. 2025) The Bank of Canada avoided surprising markets by keeping interest rates unchanged at 2.75% today, as it continues to wait to see what the full impact of uncertain US trade policy on the economy will... 4th June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update It’s only a matter of time before UK wage growth slows According to the measures of wage growth that we consider the most useful and the fundamentals of the recent easing in the demand for labour relative to the supply, it is only a matter of time before... 4th June 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The strong start to the year shouldn’t be mistaken as a sign the UK economy will be able to shrug off the large rises in business taxes that took effect in April and the lingering uncertainty over US... 4th June 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q1 2025) Although activity was off to a poor start in 2025, the persistent strength in unit labour cost growth will constrain the RBA’s ability to provide much policy support. 4th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weak outlook for global industry The latest PMIs suggest that global industrial activity has weakened so far in Q2. Meanwhile, goods price pressures remain subdued in most countries apart from in the US, where tariffs already seem to... 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will look past minimum wage increase While this year’s minimum wage hike will be only slightly smaller than last year’s, it is unlikely to prevent a further slowdown in wage growth over the coming quarters. That said, with capacity... 3rd June 2025 · 3 mins read
