Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA caught between a rock and a hard place Although business confidence in Australia has plunged in the wake of the Iran war, indicators of underlying activity remain fairly resilient. With capacity pressures elevated and inflation risks... 17th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will wait until June before tightening policy again Bank of Japan Governor Ueda signaled this week that a rate hike at the Bank’s April meeting is off the table. While there’s a risk of prolonged inaction, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz over the... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Apr. 2026) The housing market continued to struggle in March and the recent rebound in fixed mortgage rates, driven by the spike in oil prices, suggests that house prices will fall further in the coming months. 16th April 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Iran war to boost UK prices for flights, flowers and food Outside of fuel and utilities, the prices of flights, other forms of transport, flowers and food are likely to rise the most in response to the Iran war. In our baseline scenario, food price inflation... 16th April 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Mar 2026) First-quarter manufacturing growth was the strongest in more than four years, but that largely reflects a rebound from a particularly weak fourth quarter. With higher energy prices set to be a drag on... 16th April 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update What does the Iran war mean for UK loan arrears? While higher unemployment and mortgage rates due to the Iran war suggest the share of loans in arrears will rise over the next few years, even in an adverse scenario it will remain low relative to... 16th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How could non-energy shortages affect supply chains? In the coming months, depressed shipments of non-energy commodities through the Strait of Hormuz risk disrupting some supply chains using aluminium, plastics and synthetic rubber. The risks are... 16th April 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Feb. 2026) The surprisingly strong 0.5% m/m in February (consensus forecast 0.1%, Capital Economics 0.2%) and the upward revision to January GDP from 0.0% m/m to +0.1% m/m suggests the economy went into the... 16th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (March 2026) The latest data will reinforce the RBA’s assessment that upside risks to inflation are greater than downside risks to the labour market. 16th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Core PCE-CPI inflation gap to narrow later this year Most of the factors causing the unusual situation of core PCE inflation being higher than core CPI inflation should reverse by the turn of the year, with core PCE inflation falling while core CPI... 15th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales (Feb 2026) The healthy rebound in both manufacturing and wholesale sales in February was expected given the end of seasonal retooling at various automakers, and supports the view that GDP edged higher that month... 15th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Initial war hit to world trade appears small After a strong start to the year, the early signs are that disruptions from the Iran war did not deal a heavy blow to world trade in March. In other trade developments, China continues to gain global... 15th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Business investment boom not on the cards The recent surge in machinery orders seems to vindicate concerns by some BoJ Board members that the Bank is falling behind the curve. However, other indicators are less upbeat and with the energy cost... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Mar 2026) After a strong couple of months, the downside surprise in core producer prices in March offers some encouragement for the Fed that pipeline inflation pressures are not spiralling out of control... 14th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Mar. 2026) Existing home sales fell back below the historically weak 4m annualised level in March and prospects for April do not look much better, as timely indicators point to weakening housing demand following... 13th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Households lack cushion against gasoline price shock The sharp fall in the saving rate to 4.0% in February predates the Iran war and may signal what lies ahead as households absorb much higher fuel bills. This limited cushion suggests households will... 10th April 2026 · 5 mins read
