Australia & New Zealand Economics Update A primer on Australia’s general election The upcoming federal election on 3rd May appears likely to result in a hung parliament. Although the ruling Labor party’s recent uptick in the polls suggest that it is in pole position to form a... 16th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Apr. 25) The housing market took another leg down in March, with the larger decline in single-family home prices suggesting that owner-occupiers rather than investors are behind the most recent weakness... 15th April 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK rents growth to stay above pre-pandemic rates While the big easing in market rents inflation over the past few years suggests falls in all-tenancy rents inflation are in the offing, both measures of rents inflation will probably stay above pre... 15th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Will tariffs drive a flood of Chinese exports elsewhere? Punitive tariffs have the potential to cause a substantial fall in US imports from China – a 60% tariff, for example, could cut imports from China by about a third over the next two years, with... 15th April 2025 · 20 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) The downward surprise to CPI inflation in March, along with the first target-consistent gains in CPI-trim and CPI-median in eight months, at the margin raise the odds of a rate cut by the Bank of... 15th April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Feb. 2025) While the jobs market weakened further, there were few signs this is feeding through to slower wage growth. But if the more uncertain backdrop from the recent US tariffs chaos soon becomes a bigger... 15th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Apr. 25) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan's economy will be hit less hard than many other large economies by the recent escalation of... 15th April 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Will domestic spending offset weak external demand? It’s been two months since Canadians began boycotting US goods and services in the wake of the aggression from President Trump over tariffs and his apparent desire to make Canada the 51st state. The... 11th April 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump folds first hand, doubles down on second As we suggested in our Update from last weekend, it was only a matter of time before the increasingly adverse market reaction forced President Donald Trump to reconsider his plan to levy prohibitive... 11th April 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Risks tilting towards weaker GDP and faster falls in inflation The extraordinary tariff chaos over the past week and associated fallout in the financial markets have increased the chances that the damage to the UK from the US trade war will be larger and that... 11th April 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr. 2025) The further fall in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April, along with the rise in both one- and five-year inflation expectations, suggests that the tariff-related fears which... 11th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Xi to Trump: Anything You Can Do (I Can Do … ) China’s tit-for-tat retaliation in its rapidly escalating trade war with the US exerted some renewed pressure on equities and the dollar today, with bonds still buffeted by expectations of monetary... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Mar. 2025) Following the favourable CPI and PPI data, we estimate that the core PCE deflator rose by a below-target 0.05% m/m in March. Even taking into account a likely upward revision to the rise in February... 11th April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Feb. 2025) The surprisingly strong 0.5% m/m rise in GDP in February (consensus +0.1%, CE 0.0%) and the upward revision to January GDP from -0.1% m/m to 0.0% m/m came as a pleasant surprise. But higher US tariffs... 11th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Tariff fallout won’t send the RBA into panic mode With concerns growing that Trump's trade war won't leave Australia unscathed, investors now expect the RBA to cut rates by 125bp across its easing cycle. The rout in financial markets also appears to... 11th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: What would it take to scupper further BoJ rate hikes? The Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged for a few months to assess the fallout from the trade war. However, our base case is that the trade war won’t provide a large enough drag on... 11th April 2025 · 6 mins read
