Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Dec. 2025) The unchanged level of retail sales volumes in December confirms that they fell over the quarter a whole, which would have dragged down goods consumption and contributed to the likely weak result for... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q4 2025) The government shutdown ended up being a much bigger drag on the economy than the Treasury’s data had suggested, with fourth-quarter GDP growth slowing to 1.4% annualised. Federal expenditure... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Youth unemployment cyclical not structural...for now Labour market data published this week has raised valid concerns about a structural rise in youth unemployment. But while it is too early to rule that out, the rise so far is not that much more than... 20th February 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Feb. 2026) February’s flash PMIs provides further signs of an encouraging start to the year for economic activity and suggests that inflationary pressures in the services sector increased a bit further. While we... 20th February 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Jan. 2026) The big reduction in public borrowing and surge in retail sales in January support other evidence that the economy started the year looking a lot healthier. This will give the Chancellor something... 20th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The case for back-to-back hikes by the RBA Data released this week continue to indicate that the Australian economy is running up against capacity constraints. The relatively modest pickup in wage growth last quarter belies the fact that unit... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Looser fiscal policy has yet to manifest itself The large supplementary budget passed in November provided no discernible boost to public spending last quarter, which supports our long-held view that the government only recorded a minuscule budget... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Feb. 26) With the composite PMI rising to a three-year high in February, the recent sluggishness in economic activity should be followed by a marked recovery in the first half of this year. 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jan. 2026) With price pressures showing signs of softening, the Bank of Japan won’t be in a rush to resume its hiking cycle. However, we still believe conditions will be in place for the Bank to raise rates by... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Glittering TSX unlikely to boost consumption by much There does not appear to have been any meaningful wealth effects on consumption from the skyrocketing TSX, partly because households have faced offsetting falls in house prices. We expect the TSX to... 19th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Will the AI buildout be inflationary or disinflationary? The evidence so far shows that the inflationary effects of stronger demand from the AI buildout remain narrow, whereas the disinflationary effects of stronger productivity growth already appear to be... 19th February 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Dec 2025) The usual suspects were behind the widening in the trade deficit at the end of last year: gold, pharmaceuticals and IT equipment. December’s trade figures leave our Q4 GDP growth estimate at a solid 3... 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Dec 2025) The equal sized gains in export and import volumes in December confirm that net trade made a positive contribution to fourth-quarter GDP. However, looking through the volatile components that drove... 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 26) With the January labour force survey confirming that the labour market is tightening rather than loosening as the RBA had anticipated, the Bank has more work to do. 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Jan 27-28) The minutes of the Fed’s late January policy meeting are arguably a little more hawkish than expected with “several participants indicat[ing] that they would have supported a two-sided description of... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Feb. 2026) The housing market weakened sharply in January, with home sales and house prices both plunging. While the housing market has been struggling for some time, the record-breaking winter storm that hit... 18th February 2026 · 4 mins read
