US Rapid Response

US Producer Prices (July 2025)

Most of the large upside surprise to core PPI in July was due to a head-scratching increase in margins for wholesalers and retailers. While the data still imply that the core PCE deflator rose by...

14th August 2025 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Jun. & Q2 2025)

The unexpectedly strong 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in June (consensus and CE forecast 0.1%) and 0.3% q/q gain in Q2 are more likely to be due to a temporary burst of growth rather than a sign of a...

14th August 2025 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul. 2025)

The still tight rental market and softening in housing activity recorded by the RICS survey in July implies that rents will continue to rise faster than house prices for another year or so.

14th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (July 2025)

The tick down in the unemployment rate in July is likely to keep the RBA on sidelines at its next meeting in September, but we still think the Bank will ultimately loosen policy a bit further than...

14th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Global Inflation Watch

Could tariffs yet reignite global inflation?

Tariffs have had a limited impact on inflation so far, but we still expect the impact to gradually build. In the US, combined with the crackdown on immigration, tariffs should keep core inflation...

13th August 2025 · 19 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

London house prices to outperform the rest of UK

Very tight supply, looser lending criteria and our forecast for further falls in mortgage rates provide scope for house prices in the capital to rise by more than elsewhere over the next few years.

13th August 2025 · 3 mins read

RBNZ Watch

RBNZ’s easing cycle has further to go

The RBNZ is all but certain to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting ending on August 20 th. Although inflation is set to remain in the upper half of the Bank’s 1-3% target band in the near-term, we...

13th August 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q2 2025)

13th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

Labour markets weakening in most DMs, not just US

While the US jobs data captured the spotlight recently, the weakening of labour markets in most advanced economies has received less attention. Softer labour demand should dampen wage and price...

12th August 2025 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Update

CE UK Unemployment Proxy signals a looser labour market

Our new CE UK Unemployment Proxy extracts the overall signal from a range of measures of labour market slack and suggests that the labour market has loosened further than the Labour Force Survey...

12th August 2025 · 5 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025)

There was another narrative shift for the Fed in the July CPI data, with tariff effects once again barely perceptible but a stronger gain in services prices pointing to another above-target gain in...

12th August 2025 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Jun./Jul. 2025)

The further falls in payroll employment and job vacancies suggest that the labour market is still cooling, albeit only gradually. But with wage growth excluding bonuses stuck at 5.0%, on balance today...

12th August 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will lower cash rate to 2.85% by mid-2026

The RBA endorsed market expectations of further easing when it lowered the cash today and we think the Bank will ultimately slash rates to 2.85%.

12th August 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (August 25)

12th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Why the stock market may not care if the Fed disappoints

A simple argument can be made that the US stock market would falter next month if the Fed didn’t cut rates, the logic being that Treasury yields would rise and reduce the present value of firms’...

11th August 2025 · 4 mins read