UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (May 2025) With services inflation still elevated at 4.7%, the small fall in CPI inflation from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May (CE 3.2%, consensus 3.4%) won’t prompt the Bank of England to deviate from its recent... 18th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (May 25) While US-bound exports kept falling in May, Japan’s overall exports were little changed and we estimate that net exports will be only be a small drag on Q2 GDP growth 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily JGBs still vulnerable to tighter BoJ policy Although we’ve become less confident the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise its policy rate again this year given its view of the risks to growth and inflation, for now we are sticking to our forecast... 17th June 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (May 2025) The modest decline in industrial production in May was driven by the volatile utilities sector; manufacturing and mining both increased, although admittedly only by a little. It is difficult to see a... 17th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (May 2025) The weakness in retail sales in May was mostly due to temporary drags from the end of tariff front-running and the unseasonably wet weather in the east of the country, so should reverse in June... 17th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates before year-end The Bank of Japan decided to taper its bond purchases at a slower pace from next year and retained its pessimistic outlook for the economy. However, we expect that mounting upside risks to the Bank’s... 17th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (June 25) The rise in home sales in May suggests a nascent recovery is underway in the housing market following a tariff-induced shock. While we see further upside for house prices this year, as lower mortgage... 16th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Carney plays defence The government’s new commitment to NATO’s 2% of GDP defence spending target will do little to help the economy this year, since the announced additional spending is focused in operations and... 13th June 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June 2025) The stronger-than-expected June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index suggests that, despite ongoing policy uncertainty, consumers have become much less worried about both tariffs and... 13th June 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Chancellor’s fingers are all over weak employment The Chancellor would have hoped that her Spending Review would leave us all talking about how her policies have improved the economic outlook. Instead, the most striking development of the week was... 13th June 2025 · 8 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Apr. 2025) Manufacturing sales volumes plunged in April as the temporary boost to exports from tariff front-running unwound. Prospects for a meaningful rebound over the coming months look slim, with new orders... 13th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Recovery appears to be stumbling in the Antipodes New survey data suggest that business conditions in Australia continued to deteriorate in May. Moreover, with firms also reporting a renewed easing in cost and price pressures, risks are tilting... 13th June 2025 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch BOE Watch: Risks shifting towards UK rates being cut below 3.50% The Bank of England will almost certainly leave interest rates at 4.25% at its meeting on Thursday 19th June and will keep its options open for the subsequent meeting in August. But the recent falls... 12th June 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (May 2025) The softer-than-expected PPI data mean we now estimate that core PCE prices rose by 0.16% m/m in May, marking the third consecutive target-consistent gain. Much like for the CPI, there was only... 12th June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Apr. 2025) The fall in GDP in April supports our view that the strength of the economy in Q1 was a red herring and that GDP growth will be more subdued during the rest of the year. This won’t prompt the Bank of... 12th June 2025 · 3 mins read
