US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Feb. 2026) The surprise fall in house prices in February suggests the market was on even weaker footing than previously thought ahead of the jump in mortgage rates tied to the Iran war. Despite this, we are not... 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Private credit CLOs not a repeat of 2008 CDOs The rapid growth of private credit CLOs has prompted comparisons with subprime CDOs in the lead-up to the global financial crisis. However, while there are some similarities, namely their opacity, the... 27th April 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How far will the Iran war push up UK homebuilding costs? A renewed rise in homebuilding construction costs due to the jump in energy prices since the start of the Iran war will only further constrain homebuilders’ profits and housing starts. This poses some... 27th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Dire farming outlook risks worsening inflation rebound Record drought conditions in North America along with elevated diesel and fertiliser prices could stoke food inflation and, in turn, households' expectations. This raises the risk that the Bank of... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Refunds, refunds everywhere but not a major stimulus Individuals have benefited from higher tax refunds this year and companies will soon benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds, but we doubt that these will make a big difference to GDP growth. 24th April 2026 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Stagflation shock not as big as businesses fear The net effect of the stream of data released this week will probably lead to some policymakers at the Bank of England worrying more about the upside risks to inflation than the downside risks to... 24th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Feb. 2026) The 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales volumes in February was a little softer than we expected, but the bigger news is that the flash estimate points to only a 0.6% rise in retail sales values in March... 24th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly AI revolution still largely bypassing Japan The external trade data for March showed that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has started to reduce energy inflows from the Middle East. But the more striking development is the recent... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Mar. 2026) The surprisingly strong 0.7% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in March (CE forecast +0.5%, consensus +0.1%) meant that they rose by a chunky 1.6% q/q in Q1 overall. But April’s drop in consumer... 24th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation risks continue to climb higher in Australia Australia's flash PMIs suggest that business conditions bounced back in April, while firms' hiring intentions strengthened in tandem. However, firms have yet to see any respite from intensifying price... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: BoE to talk tough, but unlikely to deliver We expect the Bank of England to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday 30th April. But with the data over the last month likely to have raised concerns about the risk of second-round inflation... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: UK outlook – Assessing macro scenarios through 2026 and beyond 7th May 2026, 3:00PM BST The UK entered 2026 already facing a challenging economic backdrop.
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) Higher gasoline prices will weigh moderately on consumption, but there are signs that investment will broaden out beyond AI-related spending. We expect GDP growth to average 2.2% this year and next... 23rd April 2026 · 0 mins read
US Fed Watch Powell’s departure upstaged as Warsh readies Fed revamp The FOMC will leave the fed funds target range at 3.50–3.75% next week, while likely providing a slightly more hawkish policy statement. But assuming Chair Powell doesn’t go rogue at what should be... 23rd April 2026 · 8 mins read
