Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Jan. 26) The Bank of Japan sounded more optimistic when it left policy settings unchanged today and there’s a chance that it could raise rates earlier than our current forecast of July. The Bank’s decision to... 23rd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy continues to run hot We learned this week that Australia’s unemployment rate fell to a seven-month low in December. The strength of the labour market is a key reason to expect consumption growth to remain brisk in the... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (December 2025) With underlying inflation price pressures remaining firm, we expect the Bank of Japan to resume its tightening cycle in the coming months. 23rd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) Although headline inflation picked up further in Q4, underlying inflation remains well behaved. That being the case, we still think the RBNZ will keep rates on hold for a prolonged period, whereas... 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to leave rates unchanged throughout 2026 We think the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates on hold again next week despite the soft data released since December’s meeting, given policymakers’ desire to gain more clarity over the future of... 22nd January 2026 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Oct. & Nov. 2025) The solid 0.3% m/m gains in real consumption in both October and November confirm that the government shutdown had very little impact on economic activity. Those gains slightly outpaced our prior... 22nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Major central banks out of sync in 2026 Since December, investors’ year-end interest rate expectations have moved towards our own end-2026 policy rate forecasts for all major advanced economies. We think there is a bit further to go before... 22nd January 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Dec. 2025) The public finances are finally showing signs of improvement in recent months. But the pace of deficit reduction remains very slow and Starmer/Reeves’ political vulnerability casts doubt over whether... 22nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2025) Given the renewed tightening in the labour market in December, the Reserve Bank of Australia is all but certain to pull the trigger on a rate hike at its meeting next month. 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed on hold as political attacks ramp up The data released since the FOMC’s December meeting have reduced the potency of both the hawks’ warnings about inflation risks and the doves’ warnings about labour market risks. This reduces the... 21st January 2026 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) We see recent strength in AI-related business investment as the start of a multi-year capex boom, driving GDP growth of 3.0% this year and 2.5% in 2027. Despite the economy running hot and labour... 21st January 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why is services inflation stickier in Europe than the US? Given comparatively weak economic conditions, it might seem surprising that services inflation has been stickier in Europe than in the US in recent months. But much of this reflects the delayed... 21st January 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec. 2025) The rebound in CPI inflation from 3.2% in November to 3.4% in December makes it unlikely the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 3.75% on 5th February. But we still think that a fall in... 21st January 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update How would Japan respond to a further surge in yields? Should JGB yields continue to surge, PM Takaichi may be forced to offset some of the expansionary fiscal measures announced recently with tightening elsewhere. However, those moves may not be seen as... 21st January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Midterms unlikely to slow down Trump The Republicans are likely to lose their majority in the House of Representatives in this November’s midterm elections, but that won’t slow down the President, with Donald Trump continuing to pursue... 20th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update SCOTUS rulings pivotal for Trump’s second year President Donald Trump’s first year back in the Oval Office was more disruptive than we had expected, marked by attacks on the global trading order, the domestic institutional framework and even the... 20th January 2026 · 5 mins read
