UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Nov./Dec. 2025) While the labour market remains soft, the stability of overall pay growth in November diminishes the chances that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 3.75% now to 3.50% at the next policy... 20th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank's surveys provide mixed messages for GDP and jobs There were some signs of life in the Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys, with the pick-up in the indicator of future sales suggesting that the outlook for GDP growth is much better than the... 19th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Dec 2025) The second-consecutive below-target monthly gain in CPI-trim and CPI-median should further reduce speculation that the Bank of Canada will hike interest rates this year. If anything, coupled with the... 19th January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Trump’s Greenland tariffs would be another drag for the UK If President Trump’s latest tariff threats were actually implemented, they would add to the existing pain for UK car and pharmaceutical manufacturers and in a worse-case scenario could reduce UK GDP... 19th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Is PM Takaichi creating her own Liz Truss moment? Our base case remains that Japan will avoid a fiscal crisis as its public debt dynamics are more favourable than is widely understood. However, there are mounting risks that PM Takaichi will only rein... 19th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Prospects for fourth-quarter GDP looking weak The data released this week suggest that the economy contracted in the fourth quarter, although recent experience shows that the quarterly GDP by expenditure data could tell a different story. 16th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jan. 2026) The housing market ended the year on a weak footing, with both sales and house prices continuing to fall. The outlook for this year is a little brighter, with tightening supply of new listings likely... 16th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Wait for the SCOTUS tariff ruling continues The wait continues for the Supreme Court’s judgement on the legality of President Trump’s IEEPA-invoked tariffs. If those tariffs are ruled to be illegal, we think Trump will be able to replace a lot... 16th January 2026 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Dec 2025) While December’s industrial production figures were generally more positive than previous months’, the key takeaway when looking back on last year is that tariffs have not triggered any manufacturing... 16th January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly February may be too soon, but rate cuts to keep on coming Unless next week’s labour market and inflation data are unanimously weak, February may be too soon for another interest rate cut given the Bank of England’s hawkish tilt at its December meeting. But... 16th January 2026 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Hawkish BoJ may lift JGB yields even further We aren’t convinced that the continued rise in long-term bond yields coupled with the further weakening of the yen signals a loss of confidence in Japanese assets. But if the BoJ signals a more... 16th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Spending binge reinforces case for RBA to hike With Australian households continuing to loosen their purse strings, private consumption is almost certain to have recorded a bumper gain last quarter. Moreover, as firms report increasingly severe... 16th January 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Soft UK consumer spending in Q4 a sign of things to come A slew of data released in the first couple of weeks of the year suggests that retailers had a disappointing so-called “Golden Quarter”. We suspect this is a sign of things to come and forecast that... 15th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) We expect GDP growth to be just 1.2% this year as growth in household spending, investment and exports remains subdued. Despite soft GDP growth and only modest employment gains, the unemployment rate... 15th January 2026 · 0 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales (Nov 2025) While the decline in manufacturing sales in November was broadly as expected, the surprise slump in wholesale sales suggests that GDP growth was quite a bit weaker than expected last quarter. 15th January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Nov. 2025) The 0.3% m/m rebound in real GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast 0.1% m/m) suggests the economy is heading into 2026 with a bit more momentum than we thought. But with the economy still... 15th January 2026 · 3 mins read
