Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Dec. 2024) The jump in retail sales in December was partly due to the GST holiday, but also reflected strong gains in sectors that were unaffected by tax changes. Nonetheless, with sales dropping back in January... 21st February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Rebound in inflation could spell trouble for the BoE With households particularly sensitive to rising food and energy prices, we're becoming more worried that the Bank of England can't ignore the big increase in food inflation in January and the coming... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) The leap in retail sales volumes in January shows that the retail sector shot out of the blocks at the start of the year. But some of that strength will have come at the expense of weakness in other... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jan. 2025) While January’s disappointing public finances figures may not be as bad as they first appear, they continue the run of bad news for the Chancellor in 2025 and underline the difficult choices she faces... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Strong inflation underpinned by soaring labour costs With the economy growing well above trend and inflation double the Bank of Japan's target, the financial markets are starting to come around to our view that the Bank will lift its policy rate to 1%... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s hands tied by the tight labour market When the RBA cut rates by 25bp this week, it made it painfully clear that any further loosening of policy settings would be modest given the strong labour market. The Bank's concerns seem to be well... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (February 25) The further rebound in the composite PMI in February coupled with the persistent strength in manufacturing output prices suggests that the Bank of Japan won’t wait long before hiking rates again 21st February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2025) With Treasury yields rising in Q4 and property cap rates falling for the first time since mid-2022, our property valuation scores declined across the board. This supports our view that the recovery in... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) The latest data suggest that, outside China, the world economy lost a bit of momentum heading into 2025. Around the turn of the year, manufacturing output kept treading water, retail sales weakened in... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jan. 25) The acceleration in headline inflation and strength in underlying inflation in January should add to the Bank of Japan’s confidence that it can continue its tightening cycle over the coming quarters... 20th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Equities Update The S&P 500 in 2025: a five-figure fantasy? While our bullish year-end forecast of 7,000 for the S&P 500 assumes the index’s absolute valuation will approach its dotcom-era peak, that forecast is comparatively conservative based on relative... 20th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2025) 20th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed FOMC Minutes (Jan 28th-29th) The minutes of the Fed’s late-January policy meeting underline that, having cut rates by a cumulative 100bp, officials are in no hurry to resume loosening monetary policy, even though most still... 19th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Is the BoC right to ignore CPI-trim and CPI-median? The Bank of Canada has downplayed the recent stronger monthly increases in its preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures, but we are not convinced by the Bank’s claim that these measures are... 19th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think moves in DM yields may diverge before long Although long-term government bond yields in developed markets (DM) have moved in tandem with those of US Treasuries in recent months, we think they will diverge in the coming months. 19th February 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Jan. 2025) The decline in housing starts in January is not a major concern, as it comes after a surge in starts in December and appears partly driven by the unseasonably harsh weather. Encouragingly, permit... 19th February 2025 · 2 mins read
