UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec. 2025) The continued weakness in buyer sentiment, the further rise in the supply of homes for sale and the softening in rental demand recorded by the RICS survey in December implies that the risks to our... 15th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ will signal more rate hikes The Bank of Japan’s Board will revise up their GDP growth forecasts next week as downside risks from tariffs have abated. And while the government’s energy subsidies will result in lower forecasts for... 15th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update Snap elections won’t result in major fiscal loosening While the ruling LDP/Ishin No Kai coalition will probably enhance its majority in the upcoming Lower House elections, we aren’t convinced that this will herald a further major loosening of fiscal... 15th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Trump's affordability push to have limited success President Trump’s proposals to improve housing affordability are not enough to move the dial, which would require a sustained decline in mortgage rates. Unfortunately, our positive outlook for the... 14th January 2026 · 11 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Nov. 2025) The broad-based gains in headline, core (ex-autos), and control group retail sales in November indicate that household spending remained resilient early in the holiday season, with the government... 14th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Oct & Nov 2025) The delayed October and November data revealed that PPI inflation was higher than most expected toward the end of last year, but that was largely due to revisions to the data for September, which have... 14th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus How tariffs are (and are not) reshaping world trade This Focus answers 10 questions about the tariff state of play, how trade flows are changing, and whether the resilience of world trade will last. Beyond our conclusion that trade will continue to... 14th January 2026 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We believe the RBA will join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens... 14th January 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Venezuelan oil only a small threat to Canadian output The likely increase in Venezuela’s oil output in the next few years will cause some pain for Canadian producers, but it is unlikely to have a major impact on GDP growth. 13th January 2026 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Sep. & Oct. 2025) New home sales remained above 700,000 annualised in October for the third month in a row, confirming that the combination of slightly lower borrowing costs and strong homebuilder sales incentives are... 13th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Dec 2025) The weaker-than-expected 0.2% m/m increase in the core CPI in December suggested that there has been some genuine moderation in underlying inflation pressures in recent months. Nevertheless, our... 13th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Latest threat to Fed independence likely to fail The Trump administration’s latest attempt to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues on the FOMC to cut interest rates will fail and there are several reasons to believe it could backfire. 12th January 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Get ready for a big fall in UK inflation to 2.0% We think April’s inflation data (released on 20th May) will reveal that, after spending almost five years above target, CPI inflation has finally fallen to 2.0%. This would be below the consensus... 12th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy will continue to grow at a healthy pace, which should ensure that the labour market... 12th January 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Nov. 25) With Australian households continuing to loosen their purse strings, the case for the RBA to tighten policy is growing increasingly compelling. 12th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Productivity boom: this time it's structural The latest surge in productivity suggests the AI boom is providing lasting benefits to the US economy that go well beyond just the value of investment in data centres. Non-farm business productivity... 9th January 2026 · 7 mins read
