Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Tariff threats mount on multiple fronts Even if the 25% tariff on all goods scheduled for March 4th is postponed again, Canada is still set to face the same tariff on steel and aluminum exports to the US just weeks later. Added to that... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: US reciprocal tariffs will be a big deal After a hot CPI report this week and a not-so-hot PPI report (at least not in the components that count) we estimate that the Fed’s preferred core PCE price measure increased by 0.28% m/m in January... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jan. 2025) The rise in industrial production in January is not as good as it looks as it was driven by a weather-related surge in utilities and a further post-strike recovery in aerospace & parts output. 14th February 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Trump’s tariffs tirade becomes more troubling for the UK We still believe that tariffs are unlikely to reduce UK GDP by as much as some fear and that the UK is much less exposed than a lot of other economies. But the growing possibility of the UK facing... 14th February 2025 · 11 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Dec. 2024) The sharp decline in manufacturing sales volumes in December suggests that the earlier recovery in the sector has hit a wall. New orders rose only modestly, by 1.3%, confounding hopes that the sector... 14th February 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) The large fall in control group retail sales in January, together with the timelier data showing a slump in vehicle sales, suggests that real consumption fell last month. While weather effects were... 14th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Banks starting to benefit from higher interest rates The 10-year JGB yield rose to a 14-year high this week and we think it will reach 1.75% by the end of the year as the Bank of Japan tightens policy more rapidly than most anticipate. Banks were... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: NZ mulls tax cuts, Australia could gain from trade war Speculation has been growing that the New Zealand government will slash the corporate income tax rate in the upcoming May budget. Given that New Zealand’s corporate tax rate is higher than in most... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump's reciprocal tariffs a bigger deal than universal measure President Trump appears to have abandoned the idea of imposing a flat universal tariff of 10% or 20% on imports from all other countries. But the broad criteria that will be used to assess his new... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US PPI (Jan 2025) Final demand PPI increased by a bigger-than-expected 0.4% m/m, but the components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE price measure were, on the whole, very tame. As a result, we now estimate that... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Dec. & Q4 2024) The 0.1% q/q rise in real GDP in Q4 (consensus, CE and BoE forecasts all -0.1%) leaves the economy all-but stagnating as businesses adjust to higher taxes and more uncertainty from overseas. We aren’t... 13th February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jan. 2025) January’s RICS survey suggests that the recent rises in mortgage rates and the downbeat economic outlook weighed on housing demand at the start of this year. But bigger falls in mortgage rates than... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Slower food inflation won’t stop BoJ from hiking rates Soaring food inflation has been the key driver behind the recent strength in headline inflation. Processed food inflation will remain high for a while yet but that won’t prevent overall food inflation... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jan 2025) The 0.45% m/m increase in core CPI in January will, after the spike at this time last year, add to the impression that the price data have a residual seasonality problem. Assuming the producer price... 12th February 2025 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ Watch: RBNZ has several more cuts in the pipeline The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly cut rates by 50bp, to 3.75%, at its meeting on 19th February. Although the Bank is likely to revert to 25bp cuts thereafter, we think it has much... 12th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) With real household incomes rising the most in years and the savings rate rather high, the rebound in consumer spending will continue in 2025. And with the yen set to remain weak for longer and this... 12th February 2025 · 1 min read
