Canada Economics Weekly Reports of the oil sands’ death are greatly exaggerated President Trump’s hope to apply his “drill, baby, drill” mantra to Venezuela carries risks for Canada’s oil sector, but even in the most extreme scenario it would be years before we saw a big impact... 9th January 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Public sector pay not an obstacle to further BoE rate cuts We expect the striking gap between public and private sector pay growth in October to narrow in the coming months. But even if political pressure on the government means public sector pay growth is... 9th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Dec 2025) The 0.3%-pt rebound in the unemployment rate to 6.8% last month was mostly due to the unwinding of temporary moves which had pulled it down the month prior. With private sector hiring also flat last... 9th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Sep. & Oct. 2025) Although the government shutdown-delayed residential construction report covering September and October showed a further weakening in housing starts, permit issuance picked up, suggesting we may have... 9th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Dec. 2025) The fall in the unemployment rate in December leaves the labour market looking in better health than many feared, suggesting that the Fed will be in no rush to resume interest rate cuts. 9th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade to continue to benefit from AI demand The latest data suggest that global trade continues to expand at a healthy pace, driven by strong growth in Asia. Although the annual rate of expansion will moderate next year as the effects of tariff... 9th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly China export ban more bark than bite The simmering tensions between Japan and China escalated further this week as China announced an export ban on “dual-use” goods that could be used for military purposes. To be sure, China will only... 9th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Case for February rate hike remains intact Following the release of weaker than expected November inflation figures, the financial markets now only see a small chance of a rate hike at the RBA's next meeting in February. However, if the Q4 CPI... 9th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Proposed investor restrictions won’t shift the outlook The large institutional investors that President Trump has proposed excluding from the single-family market account for just 1% of home sales nationally, meaning barring them would not materially... 8th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Oct 2025) Swings in trade of gold and pharmaceuticals were behind the plunge in the trade deficit to a two-decade low in October, though higher computer imports suggest there are genuine signs of strength... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Oct 2025) Export volumes fell a little and the trade balance returned to deficit in October, but the increases in imports of investment products bode well for domestic demand and there were some tentative signs... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US productivity (Q3) The latest surge in US productivity suggests the AI boom is providing lasting benefits to the US economy that go well beyond just the value of investment in data centres. Non-farm business... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Soft overseas demand, the past rises in interest rates and higher taxes mean that GDP will grow by only 1.0% in 2026. The weakening in the labour market last year should continue to bear down on wage... 8th January 2026 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Dec. 2025) The 0.6% m/m fall in the Halifax measure of house prices in December was the biggest monthly fall since August 2023, chimes with the 0.4% m/m fall in the Nationwide release last week and confirms that... 8th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Nov. 25) The sharp slowdown in wage growth in November was largely due to volatile bonus payments and a rebound over the first half of next year is very likely. 7th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market remains in ‘low-hire, low-fire’ stable state The drop in the job openings and job hires rates reported in November’s JOLTS was accompanied by a decline in the layoff rate from already depressed levels, underscoring employers’ continued caution... 7th January 2026 · 2 mins read
