Could tariffs yet reignite global inflation?

Tariffs have had a limited impact on inflation so far, but we still expect the impact to gradually build. In the US, combined with the crackdown on immigration, tariffs should keep core inflation above 3% well into 2026. In the rest of the world, US tariffs should end up being mildly disinflationary. This will add to downward influences from falling energy prices, weakening labour markets, and structural overcapacity in China. Global inflation has already returned to its pre-pandemic average level of around 2.5%, and this where we think it will broadly remain over the next couple of years. This should allow most central banks to return monetary policy to a more neutral stance.