US Economics Update Labour market able to withstand D.C. shakeup Due to the relatively small size of the federal workforce and the large number of exempt positions, the federal government hiring freeze should have only a modest impact on payroll employment. More... 11th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election: return of the GroKo? The latest opinion polls suggest that a CDU-SPD coalition is the most likely outcome of the German election. Such a coalition would be less likely to pursue labour market reforms and activist... 11th February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Revising down our UK GDP forecasts to below the consensus Higher taxes for businesses, a lingering drag from the previous interest rate hikes and softer overseas demand explain why we have revised down our UK GDP growth forecasts, from 1.3% to 0.7% for 2025... 11th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Getting to grips with TIPS Although the 10-year TIPS yield has fallen on net since the start of this year, we doubt it will drop to an even lower level by the end of 2025. That’s because we don’t expect the slight further... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell Testimony to Congress Fed Chair Jerome Powell stuck to the line that the Fed was in no hurry to adjust its policy stance in his semi-annual testimony to Congress today. Given that inflation remains above target and the... 11th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental supply to remain tight While it is possible that a fall in mortgage rates will trigger a modest increase in the number of rental properties over the next two years, we doubt this will offset the weakness in rental supply... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA Watch: RBA will cut rates by only 75bp this cycle We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates by 25bp, to 4.10%, at its meeting on 18th February. Although the labour market remains resilient and there are tentative signs of a pickup in... 11th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Economics Update: Steel and aluminum tariffs will cause little harm The newly-announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports entering the US will have a limited impact on the Canadian economy given that exports of these products account for just 1% of GDP... 10th February 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Steel, aluminum and reciprocal tariffs The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum come at a time when domestic capacity utilisation and import intensity are low, implying they will have less of an impact on overall prices... 10th February 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The art of the deal While President Donald Trump’s U-turn on 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico serves as a good reminder that he is always open to cutting a deal, be careful writing tariffs off altogether. China came... 7th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Trump aggression sparks long-term re-think The aggression shown towards Canada by President Donald Trump this week has raised big questions around the country's future in three key areas: trade, investment and defence. While some of the plans... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Doubting the Bank’s higher inflation forecast We doubt inflation will rise as far as the Bank of England’s new forecast suggests. The Bank's dovish tilt when it cut interest rates this week suggests it isn't putting too much weight on its own... 7th February 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb. 2025) The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for February showed a decline in the headline index alongside a sharp rise in inflation expectations, suggesting that consumers are increasingly... 7th February 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jan. 2025) A further strong rise in employment and tick down in the unemployment rate in January add to the sense the labour market is heating up, but earnings growth nevertheless eased back to 3.5%, from 4.0%... 7th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jan. 2025) The softer 143,000 gain in payrolls in January is nothing to be concerned about following the upward revisions to payrolls in November and December, which left the three-month average gain at a near... 7th February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jan. 2025) The 0.7% m/m rise in the Halifax house price index in January is at odds with the muted 0.1% m/m increase in the Nationwide measure and suggests that the housing market continues to shrug off both the... 7th February 2025 · 3 mins read
