US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Exports resilient despite trade war The trade deficit narrowed to $60.2bn in June, from $71.5bn. This was the smallest deficit in almost two years, with a normalisation in pharmaceutical goods imports causing total imports to decline by... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: A higher bar for further UK interest rate cuts In some ways, the Bank of England’s hawkish tone at its policy meeting on Thursday makes sense. However, it’s striking just how little weight the Bank is placing on the downside risks to inflation. We... 8th August 2025 · 9 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jul. 2025) The Labour Force Survey has once again made a mockery of the economist consensus, with the surprise 83,000 surge in employment in June followed by a 40,800 slump last month. We are now a bit more... 8th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Productivity growth picking up in New Zealand While the Q2 labour force survey out of New Zealand showed that labour demand remains dismal, it's worth noting that firms have been squeezing more out of their existing employees. The resultant lift... 8th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Weaker bonus growth won’t prevent further rate hikes Sluggish consumption and slower wage growth may convince the Bank of Japan to keep policy settings unchanged for longer. But amidst few signs that trade tensions have weighed on corporate profits so... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Miran a good pick for the Fed President Donald Trump’s decision to nominate Stephen Miran to replace Adriana Kugler as Fed Governor, albeit only on a temporary basis to begin with, is a welcome surprise. Miran is currently the... 7th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Is the economy already benefitting from an AI boom? Investment in both computer hardware and software surged in the first half of this year, which could be a sign that the AI boom is now boosting economic growth. Most of that hardware is imported... 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Rates cut to 4.00%, but BoE appears in no rush to cut again soon Although the Bank of England cut interest rates today by 25 basis points (bps), from 4.25% to 4.00%, it showed some signs that it may cut rates slower and/or not as far as our forecast of a decline to... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (7th Aug. 2025) Although the Bank of England cut interest rates today by 25 basis points (bps), from 4.25% to 4.00%, it showed some signs that it may cut rates slower and/or not as far as our forecast of a decline to... 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jul. 2025) The rise in Halifax house prices in July provides another indication that the housing market is recovering following the end of the stamp duty holiday on 31st March. But the subdued economic backdrop... 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update NZD and AUD likely to struggle over the rest of the year The high-beta Antipodean currencies had been the worst victims of global trade tensions but have fared better since early April, relative to their G10 peers, as global risk appetite steadily improved... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Primer on pharmaceutical & semiconductor tariffs Ahead of any possible introduction of US tariffs on imports of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, this Update brings together key facts and figures on the scale of such tariffs and economies’... 6th August 2025 (Updated 7th August 2025) · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Integrity of economic data safe for now President Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner marks another troubling step in his administration’s pressure campaign against Federal institutions. Still, we think a... 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Who’s really worried about the US economy? Although there are growing concerns in some quarters about the health of the US economy, neither equity analysts nor investors seem worried. 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update The Labour Force Survey is overstating jobs growth The Labour Force Survey is overstating population growth and therefore almost certainly overestimating employment growth. The alternative Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours points to much weaker... 6th August 2025 · 3 mins read
