Single-family starts fell to 855,000 annualised in October which was much stronger than what was implied by the low level of homebuilder confidence. We expect further declines in new home sales to bring starts down to around 650,000 in the coming months. Stretched affordability and weak demand will continue to weigh on starts further ahead, which we expect to rise only gradually to 720,000 annualised by end-2023.
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