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Commercial Property Lending (Oct.)

Outstanding real estate debt increased for the fifth consecutive month in October, driven by positive net lending in both residential and commercial real estate (CRE) sectors. We think that this reflects the rapid rebound in investment activity and an easing in credit conditions.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
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Commercial Property Lending (Apr.)

Lending growth accelerated in April, seeing the strongest monthly gain in over 12 years. And with transactions having seen a fast start to the year, we think there is more to come in the next few months. Property Drop-In (19th May): What will rising interest rates mean for commercial property returns in the US, UK and Europe? Join our 20-minute briefing on the outlook for returns on Thursday. Register now.

16 May 2022

US Commercial Property Update

Southern apartment rent growth unlikely to last forever

Over our five-year forecast, we expect in-migration to the South will see apartment rents there outgrow the national average. But further ahead, the greater ability of supply to respond in the South means that, even if that migration persists, we do not think that rents in those markets will necessarily outperform. Property Drop-In (19th May): What will rising interest rates mean for commercial property returns in the US, UK and Europe? Join our 20-minute briefing on the outlook for returns on Thursday. Register now.

12 May 2022

US Commercial Property Update

Industrial demand returning to West Coast ports

Congestion at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach forced some container ships to reroute to the less busy ports of the Gulf Coast, supporting industrial occupier demand in those markets. But we expect that to be only a temporary switch, a view backed up by recent data. And the return of container ships to the West Coast will drive a resurgence in demand for its industrial markets. Property Drop-In (19th May): What will rising interest rates mean for commercial property returns in the US, UK and Europe? Join our 20-minute briefing on the outlook for returns on Thursday. Register now.

11 May 2022

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US Commercial Property Update

REITs hint at upside risk for industrial and apartments

REIT pricing appears consistent with our view that retail values are nearing a turning point while office values have a bit further to fall. But a strong recovery in industrial and apartment REITs means that there is some upside risk to our capital value growth forecasts for 2021 and early 2022 in those sectors.

4 November 2021

US Commercial Property Data Response

US Metro Employment (Sep.)

While the 3m/3m growth rate was positive in all metros in September, employment fell in Baltimore, Detroit, Los Angeles and Pittsburgh on the month. That left employment in just Austin, Phoenix and Tampa above its pre-COVID levels, while the shortfalls in the six major metros remained larger than the 30-metro average.

3 November 2021

UK Commercial Property Data Response

Lending to commercial property (Sep.)

Net lending to UK commercial property was negative for the fourth month in a row in September, probably due to a rise in repayments. We expect further repayments, caution when seeking development opportunities and tight credit conditions to weigh on net lending in the coming months.

29 October 2021
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