The overwhelming defeat of the Brexit deal in Parliament last night increases the chances of the economy performing along the lines of our “fudge and delay” scenario, in which GDP growth rebounds in the second half of 2019 and into 2020. That said, in order to accommodate further negotiations, a general election and/or a second referendum, any delay to Brexit might need to be longer than the three months we have assumed. That would push more of the rebound into 2020.
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