The 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in August confirms that the rapid gains in output, which in just 16 months lifted GDP from being 25.1% below its February 2020 pre-pandemic peak to 0.8% below, are now behind us. And shortages, including the petrol/energy crisis, may prevent GDP from rising much in the coming months. This weaker activity outlook may prevent the Bank of England from hiking interest rates this year.
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