It’s starting to feel like a recession will never happen, but it will. Admittedly, the government may be absorbing more of the hit to national income from the surge in the cost of energy imports than we expected. The total reduction in national income may be smaller than we previously thought too. But we know that the surge in inflation and rise in interest rates will eventually hurt households and businesses. As such, we still think there will be a recession. It’s just starting later than we thought and may be a bit smaller.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services