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Lending to commercial property (Mar.)

Net lending to property eased for a third consecutive month in March, but continued to show growth. We expect increasing economic headwinds and structural changes within some sectors to weigh on commercial property lending over the near term. UK Drop-In (5th May 10:30 EDT/15:30 BST): Our UK Economics team are holding a special 20-minute briefing to discuss the latest MPC decision and what it means for their outlook for UK growth, inflation and BoE policy. Register now
Pieter Du Preez Property Economist
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More from UK Commercial Property

UK Commercial Property Update

Student accommodation rent growth to stay solid

Student enrolment remained robust during the last couple of years and is likely to continue growing strongly over the next decade. But supply of purpose-built beds has grown less rapidly and the pipeline points to a continued lag against demand. This demand-supply imbalance will likely support solid rent growth over the coming years.

24 June 2022

UK Commercial Property Chart Book

Signs of a slowdown emerging

Annual all-property rental growth reached a five-year high in May, while returns rose to levels last seen in mid-1994. But signs of a slowdown also emerged, especially in the red-hot industrial sector, where capital value growth and total returns eased for the first time in almost two years. In addition, the recovery in retail and offices lost some steam, with monthly rental growth rates nudging lower. We expect the pace of growth will let up soon as yields start to stabilise and structural changes weigh on occupier demand. As such, we expect returns to cool to below 10% by end-2022.

22 June 2022

UK Commercial Property Update

Will Manchester office rental growth outperform again?

After a more severe downturn in 2020, Manchester office rental growth has caught up with other regional cities in recent quarters. While employment growth and occupier activity may remain fairly weak, tight new supply dynamics should see Manchester office rents rising broadly in line with the average of other regional offices over the short term.

17 June 2022

More from Pieter Du Preez

UK Commercial Property Update

Property yields under pressure from higher rates

Our new, higher, UK interest rate forecast means we now expect commercial property yields will start to rise by the end of this year, earlier than in our previous profile.

29 April 2022

UK Commercial Property Data Response

RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q1)

The latest RICS survey showed that office and retail occupier activity improved significantly in Q1 and that respondents were more positive about the prospects for property over the next 12 months. But the economic environment has deteriorated since then, dampening prospects for the sector.

28 April 2022

UK Commercial Property Chart Book

Retail yield compression surprises in March

The latest monthly MSCI figures indicate that commercial property is holding up well. Rental growth rose further in March, while annual total returns matched July 2010 levels, which were the highest since Q3 1994. Industrial continues to be the driving force, but retail is also delivering a handy contribution. But we expect the current pace of growth will cool down as structural change weighs on occupier demand and yields stabilise. We therefore expect annual total returns to slow to 8-9% by end-2022.

22 April 2022
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