Will the investment recovery be delayed?

After a positive end to 2023 commercial property investment has since lost momentum, not helped by a rebound in interest rates. But we still think interest rates will fall back this year and, while commercial capital values may see a further decline, another large step down is not on the cards. Indeed, banks plan to increase the availability of commercial loans in Q2, the first rise in nearly two years. That supports our call that investment bottomed-out last year and will rise by around 20% in 2024 and 2025.