The recent surge in food price inflation means the RBI’s policy decision on Thursday 10th August is now less of a formality than it had appeared. On balance, we still think that the MPC will keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% rather than resume tightening. But with the El Niño threat also building, there is a growing risk that, even as other major EMs start their easing cycles over the coming months, the RBI delays the loosening that we currently expect to begin in early 2024.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services