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Brazil IPCA (Jun. 2024)

The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.2% y/y in June was a little softer than expected but the recent weakness in the real and mounting fiscal concerns means that there is no chance that Copom will restart its easing cycle at its meeting later this month. Rates are likely to be left unchanged throughout this year and there is a growing risk of no cuts next year either.

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