Modicare unlikely to have significant impact

Prime Minister Modi confirmed this week that his nationwide healthcare insurance scheme will be rolled out in September. Better healthcare provision could bring several benefits, from both an economic and wider perspective. But the government is allocating very little funding to the scheme and is not addressing constraints on healthcare provision. As a result, the impact of “Modicare” will be limited.
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India Economics Weekly

Omicron surging, asset sales progressing

COVID-19 cases in India are still surging. But the early indications are that healthcare systems are not under significant pressure, and we’re hopeful that India’s third wave will peak before long. Even if it doesn’t, the better-than-expected fiscal performance over recent months means that there is policy space for the government to intervene.  

14 January 2022

India Data Response

Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.)

Indian consumer price inflation took a big step towards the 6% ceiling of the RBI’s target range in December. We think it will breach the ceiling soon and that the RBI will remove some policy support. Drop-In: Neil Shearing will host an online panel of our senior economists to answer your questions and update on macro and markets this Thursday, 13th January (11:00 ET/16:00 GMT). Register for the latest on everything from Omicron to the Fed to our key calls for 2022. Registration here.

12 January 2022

India Economics Weekly

Cautious optimism despite oncoming Omicron wave

India is about to be hit by a huge Omicron wave. New COVID infections have surged fifteen-fold in the last two weeks. But we’re optimistic that the economy will prove more resilient than it has in the past. And South Africa’s experience with Omicron provides some reassurance that the outbreak could be brief.

7 January 2022

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China Economics Weekly

Inflation fears overdone, more policy tweaks

Chinese consumers appear to have become more worried about inflation recently. But these concerns may reflect a broader sense of unease among households in response to a weakening labour market rather than about inflation itself, which seems likely to remain fairly contained. Policymakers, for their part, still seem more concerned about slowing growth than about inflation risks and have continued to expand their efforts to lower financing costs and boost lending.

7 September 2018

Japan Economics Weekly

Abe delaying retirement, Q2 growth strong

Prime Minister Abe is set to remain in power for another three years following the LDP leadership elections. One of the few substantive reform proposals he has put forward is an increase in the retirement age beyond the current 65. While this would reduce pension spending, it is less certain whether it would increase employment among the elderly. And any change wouldn’t be implemented for a couple of more years.

7 September 2018

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

International Trade (Jul.)

It looks as though the contribution to real GDP growth in the third quarter from net exports will be similar to the 0.1 percentage point added in the second quarter. But the near-stagnation in imports in July provides some tentative evidence that domestic demand may have softened.

6 September 2018
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