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MPC fault lines, shifting consensus, GDP data

With the MPC minutes from this month's RBI meeting underlining that the hawks remain in the ascendancy, the temptation is to forecast further monetary tightening. Indeed, the consensus has shifted, with a majority of analysts on the latest Reuters poll now expecting another 25bp hike to the repo rate in the RBI’s next meeting in April. But with core inflation on the cusp of easing and activity data likely to show that the economy has softened a touch, we aren't throwing in the towel on our view that the tightening cycle has ended just yet.

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