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The signs of shifting cycles

In recent weeks, attention has shifted from the likely size of rates hikes towards the timing of peaks and the prospect of ultimate cuts. History can tell us little about the likely profile since no two cycles have been quite the same. And central bank communications are not a reliable guide either – they have tended to warn of further tightening to come months after the peak has been reached in the past. Instead, we will have to monitor the incoming data very closely. Weakness in the housing market and signs of a let-up in underlying price pressures in Canada and the US, respectively, support our forecast that they will cut sooner and/or more aggressively than is typically assumed.

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