Yesterday’s ECB decision was more hawkish than expected, so while we are sticking to our view that QE will end in Q3 and the Bank will raise interest rates in December, the risks are now skewed towards tightening starting sooner. On Monday, the Eurogroup will meet to discuss fiscal policy in 2023, and later in the week the full breakdown of euro-zone consumer prices data for February will give us more detail on the drivers of inflation.
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