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ECB still a long way from a pivot

This week’s data releases have done nothing to change our key calls on the euro-zone economy: that it is heading for a deeper recession and higher inflation than most expect, and that the ECB will be forced to raise rates further than the consensus anticipates next year. Meanwhile, we expect to learn next week that euro-zone GDP increased in Q3 but that inflation rose to a new record high of around 11% in October.

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