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The lessons from EM ‘turnaround’ elections

Nigeria’s presidential election this weekend could be one of several EM elections this year (including Turkey and Argentina) that see opposition victories and a turn away from unorthodox policymaking. The experience from elsewhere in the emerging world is that this would lead to a reduced country risk premium and narrower sovereign dollar bond spreads, but also result in weaker currencies and slower growth over the next year or so.

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