Higher oil prices not the biggest threat to EM inflation

The rise in oil prices, and upwards revision to our 2024 oil price forecast, will have only a small impact on EM inflation and won’t stop it from falling further. The much bigger upside risks to our inflation and interest rate forecasts stem from core and food inflation. EM oil producers will have stronger balance sheets than we’d previously thought, but we doubt this will have a major impact on their growth outlook.

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