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EM easing cycles: how are they likely to shape up?

Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil and Chile have fuelled talk of a broad-based EM easing cycle and we expect most EM central banks to start cutting rates in Q4 or Q1. We expect those with the highest policy rates (above 10%) to deliver 500bp or so of cuts over the first six to nine months and for cycles to last well into 2025. In contrast, easing cycles are likely to be much smaller (less than 100bp) and shorter in length (a few months) in countries where rates are already close to neutral, including most of Asia.

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