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Turkish lira’s resilience built on shaky foundations

The Turkish lira has held up remarkably well in the face of the escalation of the US-China trade war and the recent rise in global investor risk aversion. But with the threat of US sanctions lingering, concerns about Turkey’s external vulnerabilities likely to resurface and the central bank set to cut interest rates aggressively in the coming months, we think that the currency will fall substantially by year-end.

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