The sharp pick-up in Turkish GDP growth in Q3, to a six-year high of 11.1% y/y, was flattered by the comparison with Q3 of last year, when output was disrupted by the coup attempt. The annual rate of growth is likely to slow sharply in the coming quarters. Even so, today’s GDP data, coming alongside November’s jump in inflation, mean a rate hike at Thursday’s MPC meeting now looks highly likely.
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