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CEE inflation data less encouraging than it seems

At first sight, the latest CPI data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) might seem to provide central banks reason for comfort. But a look under the surface paints a more worrying picture: underlying core price pressures in some countries have re-accelerated. We continue to think that monetary easing cycles will slow, or that interest rates will be left on hold, over the second half of 2024. We think analysts’ projections for both inflation and interest rates in Poland in particular look too low.

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