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Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.)

The softer-than-expected inflation reading in Russia in December, of 11.9% y/y, is likely to be followed by further sharp falls in the coming months towards 4% as last year’s surge in prices passes through. But the central bank will look through this temporary collapse in inflation and remain focused on pro-inflation risks. We think the risks are becoming skewed towards interest rate hikes later this year.

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