The recent rise in oil prices – to a three-month high just shy of $80pb – can be partly attributed to the apparent pick-up in activity in China at the end of 2024, which is likely to continue to support oil prices in early 2025. Nonetheless, amid persistent structural headwinds to China’s GDP growth, the rapid rollout of electric vehicles in the country, and the prospect of OPEC raising oil supply from April, we remain happy with our below-consensus forecasts for Brent crude to fall to $70pb and $60pb by end-2025 and end-2026, respectively.
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