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Market pricing on RBA still too optimistic

The rapid rebound in activity from the recent lockdowns coupled with a further pick-up in underlying inflation should prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to taper its bond purchases in February and to end them in August. However, we believe that the financial markets are too optimistic about both the timing and the scale of rate hikes.
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Minimum wage to rise by 4% this year

Suggestions by Labor leader Albanese that minimum wage increases in line with inflation plus productivity growth are sustainable are wide of the mark at a time when consumer prices are rising twice as fast as the RBA would like them to. But with even employers supporting a large minimum wage hike, we now expect the Fair Work Commission to lift the minimum wage by 4% next month. While that would reduce the hit to household incomes from soaring living costs, it would add to the upward pressure on inflation. ANZ Drop-in (19th May, 07:00 BST/14:00 SGT): Join economists from our Australia and Markets services shortly after the release of Q1 labour market data on 18th May for a discussion about the Australian growth, inflation and monetary policy outlook. Register now.

13 May 2022

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

New Zealand - Wage growth will rise further before it falls

The 6% rise in the minimum wage will help lift wage growth further this year. But a loosening labour market and smaller minimum wage hikes in the years ahead will facilitate a slow down in wage growth from next year. Markets Drop-In (11th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): We’re discussing our Q2 Outlook reports and what they say about the potential performance of bonds, equities and FX rates as inflation peaks in a special 20-minute briefing on Wednesday. Register now.

11 May 2022

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia - Falling real incomes won’t derail consumption for now

The sharpest fall in real incomes since the 1990/91 recession won’t prevent a strong rebound in consumption this year and next. But with the tailwind from reopening the economy set to fade, consumption and GDP growth will fall below trend in 2024, prompting the RBA to cut interest rates. Markets Drop-In (11th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): We’re discussing our Q2 Outlook reports and what they say about the potential performance of bonds, equities and FX rates as inflation peaks in a special 20-minute briefing on Wednesday. Register now.

9 May 2022

More from Marcel Thieliant

Japan Data Response

Japan Retail Sales (Oct. 2021)

Retail sales kept rising in October despite another drop in motor vehicles sales. With supply disruptions now starting to ease and mobility picking up, they should continue to increase.

29 November 2021

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Border reopening won’t ease labour shortages much

Australia’s government isn’t keen on opening the immigration floodgates once the border reopens to migrants next year and we still expect the unemployment rate to fall to 4% by 2023. Nor do we expect migration to ease labour shortages in New Zealand much next year. Nonetheless, New Zealand’s labour market is already very tight and with the RBNZ set to keep tightening monetary policy, we expect unemployment to creep higher over the next couple of years.

26 November 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Retail Sales (Oct. 2021)

The 4.9% m/m jump in retail sales in October brought them very close to their May peak and supports our view that consumption will reverse nearly all of the plunge during the lockdown this quarter.

26 November 2021
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