One reason why investors were caught off guard by the further acceleration in trimmed mean CPI last quarter was that the ABS' Monthly CPI Indicator hasn't been as reliable as we'd like it to be. That upside surprise would argue in favour a renewed 50bp rate hike at the RBA meeting next week, but the Bank demonstrated during last year's Delta lockdown that it loathes policy about-faces and we're forecasting a another 25bp hike.
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