News this week that South Africa's government is evaluating the risk that it might be banned from the SWIFT messaging system is alarming. And while such an outcome seems extreme, this tail risk scenario that would result in a larger economic shock than that of the US tariffs that are in force. Elsewhere election campaigning has started in Tanzania ahead of polls in late October. With the main opposition party barred from standing, we worry the election will be contentious and present material downside risks to the growth outlook of one of the continent's best performing economies.
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