UK Economics Weekly Is the OBR too gloomy? While the Office for Budget Responsibility unveiled much stronger forecasts for the economy in last week’s Autumn Statement, with correspondingly more favourable projections for the public finances... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the UK economy continue to outperform? One of the key questions faced by the Office for Budget Responsibility in producing its economic forecasts for this week’s Autumn Statement is whether the recent outperformance of the UK economy... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Coalition still struggling to take credit for recovery This week’s second estimate of GDP looks set to confirm that the UK economy was the fastest growing G7 economy in the third quarter. But the Government’s shortfall in the opinion polls suggests that... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Message from the MPC - ignore our guidance! The changes to the MPC's unemployment forecasts revealed in its November Inflation Report last week forced the Committee to play down the strict interpretation of its own forward guidance that... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report could raise rate expectations This week’s Bank of England Inflation Report looks likely to include a downward revision to the MPC’s forecast for the unemployment rate, bringing forward the date at which it is expected to hit the 7... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Weak lending shouldn’t derail the recovery One part of the economy which has not shown much of a pick-up in recent months has been lending to households and firms. However, we are not too concerned about what, at present, is a pretty... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Threat to recovery from energy prices overplayed With last week’s GDP figures providing further evidence that the economic recovery is becoming entrenched, the recovery should be able to withstand the looming round of energy price hikes. Indeed... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK relatively unaffected by US debt debacle Last week's deal on the US shutdown took the unlikely, but potentially catastrophic, possibility of a US sovereign default off the table. Admittedly, a series of potential US fiscal flashpoints still... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP still on track for a strong Q3 Last week’s lacklustre official figures for trade, industrial production and construction output in August cast more doubt on whether the recovery is likely to be quite as robust and as broad-based as... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal rules could be tightened further In an attempt to reinforce the Conservatives’ image of fiscal responsibility, Mr Osborne said last week that his party would return the overall public finances to surplus by 2020. This would require... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Has the recovery lost its balance? With last week’s National Accounts showing a steep fall in business investment in Q2 and the current account deficit widening to a record high in the first quarter of this year, hopes for a... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly US Fed helps out Mr Carney With UK gilt yields unhelpfully following US Treasury yields up in recent months, it was welcome that they followed them down last week. Admittedly, with the prospect of more QE receding and the... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are we really a nation of estate agents? Last week’s numerous stories about estate agents dominating the jobs market were probably a bit over the top. In fact, the rise in both manufacturing and construction employment in the first two... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery too reliant on the housing market? Concerns are building that the economic recovery is too reliant on an unsustainable boom in the housing market. But we think that this is giving the housing market too much credit for the turnaround... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What will the MPC do next? Despite his best efforts in last week’s speech in Nottingham, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney failed to bring the markets any closer to the MPC’s way of thinking regarding the interest rate... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What's driving the recovery? Consumers are still a fairly big driving force behind the economic recovery. This is a bit of a concern, given that spending has been funded by lower saving rather than rising incomes. However, last... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
