UK Economics Weekly Can the recovery withstand the stronger pound? As things stand, sterling’s recent appreciation should not take too much of the wind out of the recovery’s sails. Exporters have already shown some willingness to accept tighter margins in order to... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Low inflation should ease output gap dangers The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to drop the unemployment threshold and introduce phase two of forward guidance does not guarantee that interest rates will stay on hold for a long time yet... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly All change again for the Inflation Report? The likely change to the MPC’s forward guidance alongside next week’s February Inflation Report could result in more changes to the contents of the Report. But the Committee’s inflation forecast... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly News on productivity may brighten this year Against a positive economic backdrop in recent quarters, one blot on the UK economy’s copybook has been the continuing dismal performance of productivity. Indeed, both output per worker and output per... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Farewell forward guidance? The combination of November’s further sharp fall in unemployment and hints from the Governor of the Bank of England suggest that the Monetary Policy Committee’s policy of formal, state-contingent... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation set to sink to a ten year low in 2014 Having finally fallen to the 2% target in December, there are increasingly clear signs that CPI inflation is on course to fall well below it this year. In particular, administered, food and consumer... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will car sales shift the recovery up a gear? With employment, real incomes and consumer confidence all likely to rise this year, the economic environment appears to be conducive to further growth in car sales in 2014. That said, some of the... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Did 2013 end with a whimper or a bang? While the strength of the economic recovery surprised in 2013, the economy may have seen a softer end to the year. For some retailers, the Christmas period looks like being a bit of a washout, both... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the good news keep coming in 2014? We expect the broadening out of the recovery from consumer spending to the rest of the economy to be one of next year’s main developments. Other key things to watch out for in 2014 include a modest... 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is wage growth about to pick up? Recent survey evidence suggests that wage growth may finally be starting to recover. The latest surveys from both the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and the British Chambers of... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the OBR too gloomy? While the Office for Budget Responsibility unveiled much stronger forecasts for the economy in last week’s Autumn Statement, with correspondingly more favourable projections for the public finances... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the UK economy continue to outperform? One of the key questions faced by the Office for Budget Responsibility in producing its economic forecasts for this week’s Autumn Statement is whether the recent outperformance of the UK economy... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Coalition still struggling to take credit for recovery This week’s second estimate of GDP looks set to confirm that the UK economy was the fastest growing G7 economy in the third quarter. But the Government’s shortfall in the opinion polls suggests that... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Message from the MPC - ignore our guidance! The changes to the MPC's unemployment forecasts revealed in its November Inflation Report last week forced the Committee to play down the strict interpretation of its own forward guidance that... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report could raise rate expectations This week’s Bank of England Inflation Report looks likely to include a downward revision to the MPC’s forecast for the unemployment rate, bringing forward the date at which it is expected to hit the 7... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Weak lending shouldn’t derail the recovery One part of the economy which has not shown much of a pick-up in recent months has been lending to households and firms. However, we are not too concerned about what, at present, is a pretty... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
