UK Economics Weekly A new dawn? Last week’s revelation that GDP expanded by 0.3% in Q1 will have brought relief to the Chancellor and was a welcome piece of good news following a long period of generally gloomy economic data. But... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Triple dip debate distracts from dismal big picture After what seems like a lifetime of speculation, we will finally get the official verdict this week on whether the UK is in a triple-dip recession or not. We still think that the chances of a further... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are consumers waking up? High street spending has put in a reasonable performance since the start of the year. And there are at least some conditions in place that might allow the momentum in consumer spending to build... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Does Japan offer hope for a stagnating UK? Recent developments in Japan, with a new central bank governor and the unleashing of radical monetary policy measures, may offer hope for the UK as Mark Carney’s arrival moves closer. 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 'Unbalanced' growth better than no growth? News last week of a record current account deficit and a sharp drop in the household saving ratio highlighted once again the failure of the UK economy to rebalance away from consumption-led growth... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Budget leaves dismal growth outlook unchanged The consensus is that George Osborne made the best of a bad hand last week. Nonetheless, this was not a Budget to get the UK recovery back on track. 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Poor data piles further Budget pressure on Chancellor With the news last week of falls in industrial and construction output, talk of a “triple-dip” recession is back in the headlines. It’s still early days, but even with some signs that March will turn... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Policymakers deny economy more support Don’t expect much from the Budget was the message that came through loud and clear from David Cameron’s speech last week. And barely ten minutes before the Prime Minister spoke, the MPC announced it... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Negative interest rates back on the agenda Attention last week turned swiftly from the UK’s downgrade to Paul Tucker’s comments about negative interest rates. Even if the MPC does not actually go down this route, it is heartening that even... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly More QE still worth a shot We estimate that Canada's economy grew by roughly 0.5% annualised over the entire second half of last year and is likely to perform little better over the first half of this year. Trade competiveness... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC passes the baton The MPC demonstrated quite clearly last week that it doesn’t have to wait for the new Governor to arrive to put flexible inflation-targeting into action. But Mervyn King continued to sound defeatist... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report to show nastier inflation picture The MPC took the unusual step of issuing a detailed statement alongside its no-change decision last week. It may be that the Committee viewed its decision to reinvest its gilts that mature next month... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Why has sterling taken a pounding? Last week, the pound continued to depreciate, capping off the sterling trade-weighted index’s largest drop over a calendar month since February 2010. Sterling’s weakness against the euro seems... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Crunch time for the Government With the Europe issue now kicked into the long grass of the next Parliament, politicians can hopefully get back to addressing the bigger issues affecting the economy at the moment. After all, EU... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the EU uncertainty hurting the economy? The UK’s relationship with the rest of Europe was the main topic of discussion last week. Perhaps the biggest danger is that the debate over Europe distracts politicians from getting on with taking... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Mixed report card for the Government The key message from the high street since the start of the year is that the Christmas period turned out to be pretty lacklustre. Meanwhile, the Government last week published its mid-term review and... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
