UK Economics Weekly Brighter start to new year unlikely to last The new year has got off to a generally positive start on the economic front. However, we wouldn’t get too excited. As we explained in our UK Quarterly Review published last week, we think that the UK... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 2013 to bring more of the same The economy seems to be finishing 2012 on a pretty weak note, quite probably dropping into a “triple-dip” in the final quarter. The big picture is that the economy has been flatlining for over a year... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fresh thinking coming to Threadneedle Street Mr Carney’s arrival presents an obvious opportunity to reshape the monetary policy framework and the Governor-to-be last week gave a crucial indication that he, for one, is on board. 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The Chancellor’s problems aren’t over The OBR’s downgraded forecasts for economic growth still look too high, suggesting that borrowing will be slower to fall than it expects. And even if the OBR’s forecasts are right, the Chancellor... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly In what direction will Mr Carney take the Bank? Attention has quickly turned to what impact Mark Carney’s appointment as Governor of the Bank of England is likely to have on monetary policy. We are not convinced by arguments that he has... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal position still precarious October’s public finance data suggest that the fiscal position remains weak, with the main problem being on the receipts side. Along with rising inflation, downbeat business surveys and recent signs... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly QE still at the top of the toolbox The main message from Wednesday’s Inflation Report was that quantitative easing (QE) is still the MPC’s preferred course of action when it comes to giving the economy more stimulus. 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The shine wears off The Prime Minister may have been getting ahead of himself when he said a few weeks ago that “the good news will keep on coming”. Although Q3’s GDP figure was strong, the more recent official and... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Tentative signs the lending scheme is working Last week brought some tentative signs that the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is beginning to work. New mortgage rates have been falling and last week’s lending figures were pretty encouraging... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly King rules out more unconventional steps In his speech last week, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King left the door open to more quantitative easing, but appeared to rule out any steps towards more unconventional policy measures, including... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A fiscal red herring The OBR’s argument that the Government’s cuts have not been primarily responsible for the economy’s disappointing performance might give Mr Osborne ammunition to press on with Plan A. But even if the... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly IMF gives Chancellor some wiggle room The IMF’s new economic forecasts did not tell us more than we already knew. Arguably more important was the IMF’s indication that there is some scope to ease up on the fiscal squeeze. 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Weak signals in Q3 Last week’s CIPS activity surveys, along with the BCC’s latest quarterly survey of the UK economy, means we now have a full set of survey evidence for the third quarter of 2012. Unfortunately, the... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we be worried about the current account deficit? While last week brought some tentatively positive signs regarding bank lending, the news that the UK ran a record current account deficit in Q2, thanks to an investment income deficit, was less... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Beware the thorns among the green shoots The positive tone of most of the recent releases concerning economic activity have led some to argue that the “green shoots” of recovery have re-emerged. But, without wishing to downplay the... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the worst over for exporters? On the face of it, the substantial improvement in the trade figures in July and the recent easing of financial market turmoil in some of the UK’s most important export markets suggests that the... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
