UK Economics Weekly Should the MPC follow the ECB’s example? Last week’s Bank of England figures showed that bank lending to firms and households fell in December, while conditions in bank funding markets have continued to get worse. In contrast, LIBOR spreads... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Contraction unlikely to be just a blip High inflation, rather than ‘temporary factors’ or the euro-zone debt crisis, seems to have been the key driver of the economy’s shift from stagnation to contraction in the fourth quarter. While at... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK’s safe-haven status remains secure The UK’s AAA rating always looked safer than the ratings of those euro-zone countries which have been recently downgraded. The UK might yet be in line for a downgrade at some point. But even then, it... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Pension funds hit by fall in bond yields While the drop in bond yields in recent months has been a generally welcome development, it does have its disadvantages, as highlighted by last week’s figures on company pension schemes. But last week... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery getting back on track? The start of the new year has brought the good news that the UK might just about have managed to avoid falling back into recession at the end of 2011. However, we think that it would be premature to... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What does 2012 hold in store? Consumers finally appear to have opened their wallets in the last few days. However, the big picture is that the economy has ended the year on a pretty weak note. The consensus expects an expansion in... 22nd December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK unlikely to be first in line for a downgrade Diplomatic relations between the UK and Europe worsened again last week following suggestions by French officials that the ratings agencies should be turning their attention to the UK rather than... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are retailers facing a nightmare before Christmas? The high street has been emitting an unrelenting flow of gloomy news in recent weeks. We are reluctant to conclude just yet that Christmas trading will be a total write-off. Nevertheless, a splurge... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The Chancellor’s straitjacket could get tighter We doubt when he created his fiscal framework that the Chancellor ever imagined quite what a straitjacket he was creating for himself. At a time when he is under pressure to slow down his austerity... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Credit easing an important step, but no quick fix Credit easing marks an important step forward in the Government’s efforts to tackle the lack of bank lending. But it is unlikely to transform the near-term outlook for corporate lending. 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone really to blame? The Government was lambasted last week for blaming the UK’s poor economic performance on events in the euro-zone. While the Government might have jumped the gun a bit, it won’t be long before the... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Risks from euro-zone intensify With the euro-zone crisis entering a far more dangerous phase last week, the threats posed to the UK from overseas are looming ever larger. September’s trade data, showing a sharp drop in export... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly From stagnation to contraction At first glance, last week’s activity data painted a mixed picture on the recent health of the UK’s economic recovery. However, a closer inspection suggests that the economy is heading back into... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rebalancing knocked off course On the face of it, hopes that the UK economy is finally ‘rebalancing’ were given a shot in the arm last week with the release of the Economic Accounts and Balance of Payments figures. However, a... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Core inflation should soon start to ease Last week’s consumer prices data for September may have caused some members of the Monetary Policy Committee to swallow hard after their decision to extend the quantitative easing (QE) programme... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the labour market now capitulating? Last week’s data suggested that conditions in the labour market are now deteriorating again at a rapid pace. Rather than being just a blip, we fear that this will mark the beginning of another... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read