UK Economics Weekly Too early to declare victory over core inflation Last week’s figures brought some relief on the inflation front, with core inflation dropping from 2.5% to 2.1%. We would not declare victory over inflation just yet. Nonetheless, with pay growth so... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Euro-zone threat intensifies Differences in foreclosure procedures will be one determinant of when State-level housing markets improve. While the national housing market is in the early stages of a recovery, many of the judicial... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report to show MPC in wait and see mode The inflation profile in Wednesday's Inflation Report probably won’t look much different from February’s Report. This would appear to support the consensus expectation that the QE programme is now as... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A tricky decision for the MPC Last week’s weak bank lending figures, as well as the softer business surveys for April, have intensified the dilemma facing the MPC ahead of its policy decision on Thursday. For now, we think that... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Worst recovery for 100 years Although there are doubts over the reliability of the Q1 GDP figure, it would take a huge revision to change the woeful nature of this recovery. And regardless of whether the ONS figures are right or... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC wrong to dismiss weak output figures This week’s preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP will finally answer the question of whether the UK has slipped back into technical recession. It will be a close-run thing as to whether or not the data show... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling’s rise clouds export outlook With last week’s dribble of economic figures hardly setting the pulse racing, it was the pound’s appreciation to its highest level since August 2010 that made the headlines. 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP figures may dash recovery optimism Any lingering hopes that the European Central Bank (ECB) had either already solved the euro-zone crises or would yet come riding to the rescue with much more decisive action were surely put to bed by... 9th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can consumers continue to support growth? The breakdown of Q4 GDP showed that the greatest support to the economy at the end of last year came from consumer spending. However, the good news on the consumer sector last week was largely... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Enormous fiscal squeeze still lies ahead The furore over the so-called “granny tax” denominated the media’s post-mortem of the Budget, but the big picture is simply that little changed on Wednesday. 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Gilt market retains faith in Osborne The recent rise in gilt yields has mainly reflected a pick-up in interest rate expectations and the growing belief that the MPC will soon be done with QE, rather than growing concerns about the health... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Savers’ plight won’t move the MPC Last week marked the third anniversary of official interest rates at just 0.5%. And while there are bound to be both winners and losers, it seems as if no-one is happy about it! 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly King fends off pressure to follow ECB Mervyn King faced tough questioning by the Treasury Committee last week on a couple of issues - and fought back hard. The Governor strongly resisted suggestions that the Bank of England should follow... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor unlikely to start splashing some cash As soon as last week’s figures showed that public sector borrowing is likely to undershoot the OBR’s forecast this year, the Chancellor was inundated with calls for what he should do with this... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in energy prices won't stop inflation falling Mervyn King’s forecast of a “zig-zag” year grabbed the headlines after last week’s Inflation Report, with the Governor warning that June’s extra bank holiday would lead to a bumpy path for output this... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly QE unlikely to be nearing an end Some interpreted the Committee’s decision to increase QE by “only” £50bn last week as a sign that it is close to thinking that it has done enough. However, we think that next week’s Inflation Report... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
