UK Economics Weekly Is the rise in consumer confidence a turning-point? On the face of it, the rise in the GfK/NOP measure of consumer confidence in May brought further evidence that the economy has finally turned a corner. But even if confidence is now on the up, it may... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Don't be fooled by April's inflation figures April’s sharp fall in CPI inflation led some to quickly conclude that this would be enough on its own to prompt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) into action. But a closer look at the figures... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Still plenty of scope for Carney to act In contrast to his usual gloominess at Inflation Report press conferences, Mervyn King bowed out of his final forecasting round on a much chirpier note than usual. But there is still a significant... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report may not impede further action Recent Inflation Reports have presented a pretty gloomy picture as far as the prospects for inflation are concerned. But May’s Report, to be published on Wednesday, should break this bad run. 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Selling the banks would be no quick fix Rumours that the Government is gearing up to sell its stakes in the nationalised banks have hit the headlines. Some think that even a loss-making sale would support the Government’s chances of re... 6th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A new dawn? Last week’s revelation that GDP expanded by 0.3% in Q1 will have brought relief to the Chancellor and was a welcome piece of good news following a long period of generally gloomy economic data. But... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Triple dip debate distracts from dismal big picture After what seems like a lifetime of speculation, we will finally get the official verdict this week on whether the UK is in a triple-dip recession or not. We still think that the chances of a further... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are consumers waking up? High street spending has put in a reasonable performance since the start of the year. And there are at least some conditions in place that might allow the momentum in consumer spending to build... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Does Japan offer hope for a stagnating UK? Recent developments in Japan, with a new central bank governor and the unleashing of radical monetary policy measures, may offer hope for the UK as Mark Carney’s arrival moves closer. 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 'Unbalanced' growth better than no growth? News last week of a record current account deficit and a sharp drop in the household saving ratio highlighted once again the failure of the UK economy to rebalance away from consumption-led growth... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Budget leaves dismal growth outlook unchanged The consensus is that George Osborne made the best of a bad hand last week. Nonetheless, this was not a Budget to get the UK recovery back on track. 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Poor data piles further Budget pressure on Chancellor With the news last week of falls in industrial and construction output, talk of a “triple-dip” recession is back in the headlines. It’s still early days, but even with some signs that March will turn... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Policymakers deny economy more support Don’t expect much from the Budget was the message that came through loud and clear from David Cameron’s speech last week. And barely ten minutes before the Prime Minister spoke, the MPC announced it... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Negative interest rates back on the agenda Attention last week turned swiftly from the UK’s downgrade to Paul Tucker’s comments about negative interest rates. Even if the MPC does not actually go down this route, it is heartening that even... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly More QE still worth a shot We estimate that Canada's economy grew by roughly 0.5% annualised over the entire second half of last year and is likely to perform little better over the first half of this year. Trade competiveness... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC passes the baton The MPC demonstrated quite clearly last week that it doesn’t have to wait for the new Governor to arrive to put flexible inflation-targeting into action. But Mervyn King continued to sound defeatist... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
