UK Economics Weekly Is the worst over for exporters? On the face of it, the substantial improvement in the trade figures in July and the recent easing of financial market turmoil in some of the UK’s most important export markets suggests that the... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Plan for growth still falls short The Government has returned after the summer break clearly keen to get on the front-foot regarding the dismal state of the economy. Perhaps the most notable aspect of the raft of announcements, though... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Squeeze on real incomes to last even longer Hopes that a summer packed full of sporting and cultural events would boost consumer spending have been dampened by the weaker run of data over the past week or so. What’s more, the recent rise in... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal dilemma intensifies Last week brought more bad news for the Chancellor. The public sector ran a deficit in July, a month when a surplus is typically the norm. Admittedly, some temporary factors contributed to July’s poor... 27th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP revision won’t change big picture Last week brought yet more evidence that the economy did not do quite as badly in the second quarter as the preliminary GDP figures showed. That said, we have said before that only a massive revision... 20th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly No gold medal for the economy The Olympic mood was abruptly punctured by Mervyn King as he presented the Bank of England’s Inflation Report last week. Although the lower near-term profile for inflation was good news, this was... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Full nationalisation could be required to boost lending Some people had pointed to the more upbeat surveys as evidence that the Q2 GDP figures were understating the strength of the economy. But the fall in July’s CIPS/Markit surveys diminished this... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Massive revision needed to alter the big picture Last week’s surprisingly poor GDP figures once again called into question the reliability of the data. But the weakness is consistent with the low level of construction orders and the slowdown in the... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Olympics explains part of the employment puzzle A close look at last week’s figures suggests that some of the apparent divergence between the strong employment and weak GDP figures may be explained by the Olympics. Come Games time, more than 100... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Jubilee boost masks weaker picture The effects of early June’s Jubilee celebrations are now starting to come through in the economic data. Last week’s releases provided evidence of the positive effects of the extended holiday, but... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Evidence pointing to a poor Q2 Any chances of the economy escaping a third quarterly contraction have receded in light of the latest surveys and official data. Admittedly, June’s CIPS surveys point to output being flat over the... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation outlook improves further If core inflation falls as we expect, it now looks like inflation could get as low as 0.5% or so in the early part of next year. 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Encouraging news on core inflation May’s inflation figures should help to strengthen the case for the minority pushing for more QE. Although core inflation rose from 2.1% to 2.2%, this primarily reflected base effects. Our seasonally... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will throwing money at the banks help? The measures announced at Thursday’s Mansion House dinner are a bold attempt to get credit flowing through the economy again. Most crucially, by linking the provision of cheap funds to new lending... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly One swallow does not a summer make In the midst of a generally gloomy economic situation, the last week has seen a string of fairly positive domestic news. But we doubt that May’s resilient picture will last. 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A 'knees-up' for the economy? The Queen’s Diamond Jubilee celebrations from 2nd to 5th June offer some escape from the recent bad news, and may boost consumer spirits and spending. But the additional bank holiday is likely to... 4th June 2012 · 1 min read
